Mercury @ Sun preview: Welcome Alyssa Thomas back on a quick turnaround

 Back-to-backs are tough on bloggers with full-time jobs as well, but I didn’t have to play a physical, contentious game in Indiana last night and then have to fly back to Connecticut, get some sleep, and now get ready for a more rested Phoenix team to come to town Wednesday night.

The narrative will surround Alyssa Thomas and it darn well should. She was with the Sun for 11 seasons. As Andy Tulin (@andytulin.net) wrote in his preview at herhoopsstats.com, “The 374th game of Thomas’ career will be her first against the Sun. Thomas scored a franchise-record 4,607 points during her 11 seasons with Connecticut. She also holds the franchise records for games played (367), games started (353), minutes played (11,380), field goals (1,803), rebounds (2,788), offensive rebounds (721), defensive rebounds (2,021), assists (1,775) and steals (570). Perhaps most impressively, Thomas had all of her league-record 15 triple-doubles thus far in a Sun uniform, 11 more than any other player in league history.”

LM Otero / Associated Press

But it was in her last three seasons with the Sun that she truly began to become the perennial MVP candidate that led Connecticut to the verge of an WNBA title, baffling defenses with her size and passing ability, and simultaneously being one of the best defensive players in the WNBA.

At 33, it made sense for Thomas to move on, and reports of how happy she is to be out of Connecticut certainly hurt a little, even though we heard all about the practice facility stuff and we know most of it was correct. But we also know how loyal the Sun fan base is, and how much they loved AT and all the success she brought to the franchise. I hope that makes her smile a little, even she doesn’t really recognize many of the faces in Sun uniforms at Mohegan Sun Arena.

She does have ties to one current Connecticut player, of course, in Tina Charles. After a dreadful 2013 season under Anne Donovan in which Charles averaged a double-double for a 10-24 team, the Sun did her a bit of a favor, dealing her to New York in exchange for a newly drafted Thomas (and a 2015 first-round pick). Connecticut also had the top pick that year in Chiney Ogwumike, but it is Thomas’ number that will eventually hang in the rafters somewhere hopefully in a few years.

Right back at it, what will the Sun have in the tank tonight?:

 

PHOENIX MERCURY @ SUN

Time: Wednesday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Phoenix 7-4; Connecticut 2-9

TV: WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports Boston

Line: Phoenix -14.5 

Absences: Phoenix - Sami Whitcomb (out, knee); Megan McConnell (out, knee).

Connecticut- Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

 

History between them: The Sun are 33-24 all-time against Phoenix and have won nine of the last 11 in the series, including sweeping four games in 2024. The Mercury did eliminate the Sun in both the 2017 and 2018 quarterfinals, both at Mohegan Sun Arena, the only two times they met in the playoffs.

What to look for: Unlike last night’s game against Indiana, Phoenix seems to be above where the advanced metrics say they should be, but that also doesn’t take into account that Thomas has played only seven games and Kahleah Copper recently returned as well, so it’s hard to get too much of a read statistically. The fact that the Mercury were able to stay above water without them indicates they could be legitimate contenders, although it also involved some unheralded players doing better than expected.

Phoenix is only eighth in the WNBA in offensive efficiency and has gotten by with defense, leading the W in forcing turnovers, which could be a stat to watch tonight (ironically, that wasn’t a huge problem for the Sun Tuesday). 

The Sun ran some good offense against Indiana, but they need to hit shots, plain and simple, and probably someone other than Marina Mabrey, who will draw her usual share of attention.

Key players:  Connecticut: Tina Charles- Charles played a team-high 30 minutes last night and will probably draw the assignment of trying to slow down Thomas on short rest. Charles scored 10 points in the first six minutes of the game, but seemed to tire in the second half, not a great sign with all the games the Sun have this week.

Phoenix: Lexi Held - Held has been one of the stories of the season, a 25-year-old undrafted rookie that is third on the Mercury in scoring at 9.0 points per game. But with Copper’s return, it may change her role a bit, she scored just three points in 23 minutes Sunday against Las Vegas (although the Mercury won again).

Advanced stat:  34.7 - Usage rate for Satou Sabally, tops in the league by a fairly wide margin over Brittany Sykes and Caitlin Clark. Some of that may be due to injuries, but the Mercury kind of go as Sabally does these days offensively and the fact she’s shooting just 28.4% from behind the arc suggests Phoenix might have some room for growth.

Tactical spotlight: The Mercury do not have a natural player to guard Mabrey, which means it could end up being Sabally. That could help Mabrey finally get going and have another big game, really the only well the Sun have been good offensively this season. I expect the Sun will try to go into the paint early again tonight, but it might be more difficult than it was against the Fever.

Inside the numbers: 3.5 - Number of assists per game Mabrey is averaging, which is remarkably tops on the Sun.

Prediction: 90-80 Phoenix