Sun @ Mercury preview: Hopefully the Sun haven't packed for vacation yet

Well, what do you have left, Connecticut Sun?

The Sun looked like they have one part of their collective brains on vacation on Wednesday in a listless loss to Chicago and now face three games against teams fighting for the No. 2 seed in the WNBA playoffs, which suggests that things might get worse before they get better at the end of a trying season for Connecticut.

The answers in the postgame didn’t exactly instill confidence that the Sun have just about turned the page from 2025 already, and - in the situation they’re in - there’s always some forces pulling you that way, but it’s still disappointing as a loyal fan.

Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner both
return to Mohegan Sun Arena Saturday
afternoon with the Mercury (Marcus Stevens/ Slam)

But we’ve always had hope here, and we might as well have it until the end of the season. I personally feel bad, once the summer ends and school starts, it’s very hard for me to get to Mohegan Sun Arena. I was hoping this would be my last game, but it’s not going to happen for a variety of reasons, unfortunately.

At least we know (we hope) that the Sun will return to Mohegan Sun Arena next year, so this is not the end end, just the end. This is far from a good matchup for the Sun, who (or at least their fans do) how difficult Alyssa Thomas is to defend and how DeWanna Bonner can get hot, not to mention Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally and all those Mercury players who stepped in while they were all hurt.

Hopefully Rachid Meziane can find a way to motivate his team and Marina Mabrey will finally have that game where she hits everything, and the Sun will get one more win before the curtain falls on the 2025 season.  

What else can we look for at Mohegan Sun Arena on one final Saturday afternoon?:

 

PHOENIX MERCURY @ SUN

Time: Saturday, 1 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Phoenix 27-14; Connecticut 10-31 

TV: WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports Boston

Line: Phoenix -10.5 

Absences: Phoenix - NONE.

Connecticut - Bria Hartley (out, season ending knee); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (questionable, back); Aneesah Morrow (questionable, chest)

 

History between them: Phoenix has won both meetings this season, the first at Mohegan Sun Arena, 83-75, as Alyssa Thomas just missed a triple-double (what else is new), but Connecticut did battle until the end. Then Thomas got her triple-double in the second meeting in Phoenix. The Sun are 33-26 all-time against Phoenix and had won nine of the last 11 in the series, including sweeping four games in 2024. The Mercury did eliminate the Sun in both the 2017 and 2018 quarterfinals, both at Mohegan Sun Arena, the only two times they met in the playoffs.

What to look for: Phoenix is fighting for second place, and the Sun - of course - are most decidedly not, so the Mercury are going to lead by a country mile (let’s keep going with the old-time metaphors) in motivation, of which Connecticut had next to none on Wednesday, and it’s hard to see them having any more on Saturday, except maybe playing in front of their home crowd. Phoenix also has the advantage in health, with the Sun now possibly missing three rotation players, which might be three too many in this one.

Since they’ve gotten healthy, the Mercury has really stepped up its defensive efficiency, which had been mediocre prior to that. They’re going to force their turnovers, but they’ve also been giving up tougher shots, which makes sense when you can put Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper on the floor. Their health has allowed role players like Sami Whitcomb to launch threes as well and Natasha Mack to block shots (she’s the runaway WNBA leader in blocked shot rate). They’ve got as good a chance as anyone to make a playoff run.

Key players:  Phoenix: Sami Whitcomb- At 37, Whitcomb is at the end of her career and would love an WNBA title. She’s certainly hung in there and looks to be having fun this season. She’s been a little inconsistent, but when she’s hitting shots, the Mercury are impossible to guard.

Connecticut: Marina Mabrey - Mabrey’s scoreless performance on Wednesday was an aberration of sorts, but this has been a miserable season for her in just about every category you look. The most obvious is three-point shooting where she’s 62-of-229 from behind the arc, good for just 27.1%. Bria Hartley made 54 threes in just 147 attempts (36.7%).

Advanced stat:  52.7 - Assist rate for Alyssa Thomas, which is actually down a little from the last meeting, but still absurd to look at. Thomas’ rebound rate is 16.0%, to find the next person at 10% in rebounding on the assist leader list that qualifies, you have to go all the way down to 20th, where you’ll find Angel Reese at a 21.5% assist rate. 

Tactical spotlight: Alyssa Thomas is obviously a unicorn. If you play off her, she just finds whomever is open for the shot, if you try to get up in her face, she goes to the basket and then finds the open person for a layup or three-pointer. The Sun have tried both and haven’t had any success and don’t have anyone to match up with Thomas, especially if Olivia Nelson-Ododa is out. The best chance is to try to make her score, but a) she can do that, and b) you really can’t consistently. So good luck.

Other than Mabrey’s struggles, Leila Lacan has looked very ordinary in the last couple games and without Bria Hartley and Jacy Sheldon, there aren’t any consistent shooters on the floor. That means the Sun want to get out and run (something they haven’t been able to do lately), but that frees up Thomas in the open floor the other way, and that’s pretty terrifying. Phoenix does foul a decent amount, so maybe the Sun can try to get to the rim though Rivers and Lacan.

Inside the numbers: 33.9% - Current three-point percentage of Saniya Rivers in her rookie season. You all owe her an apology, or maybe that’s just me.

Prediction: 87-70 Phoenix