Fever @ Sun preview: Shippin' up to Boston, hopefully not permanently yet

There will be a lot going on Tuesday night at TD Garden, between the game being a showcase for the possible future of the Connecticut Sun, Caitlin Clark coming to town, and the first meeting of Indiana and Connecticut since the shenanigans of June 17 that saw Jacy Sheldon, of all people, ejected, and every right-wing website abuzz at the savior, Sophie Cunningham (I still get alerts for such articles a month later, by the way).

I will not be there, sadly, although prices have gone down significantly for the cheap seats (about $100 at the moment), I already committed to my summer job for the evening.

If anything, the Sun seem slightly less likely to move to Boston in 2026 then they did when I wrote their obituary two months ago on the eve of the regular season. This article shows how much moving the team to Boston for one night involves, but reading between the lines, there seems to be a little reluctance for the Celtics (and Bruins) to share much, at least not yet.

The Sun sold out TD Garden in 2024 against the Sparks

That doesn’t mean those things won’t be worked out in the end, and the fact that Boston is nowhere near any WNBA expansion lists still indicates that the assumption is the Connecticut Sun will end up there at some point. And it still might be 2026. But it might not. 

Obviously Caitlin Clark brings buzz that no one else in the women’s basketball world can, but on the surface, the buzz in Boston is not quite as strong as it was last season when everyone was in awe of the crowd the Sun could draw for a regular season matchup with the middling Los Angeles Sparks. All while - despite the woeful on-court record - things have been pretty good at Mohegan Sun Arena, with crowd sizes near an all-time high.

Enough about the long-term future (although this jinx probably means the announcement the Sun are moving to Boston will probably happen before you read this), we’ve got half a season to play in 2025, and things look brighter for the Sun after their latest road trip, which is all relative, but with Saniya Rivers on the court and her partner in whatever, Marina Mabrey, finally set to return, if you cover your eye where the record stands, things could be a lot worse.

Tuesday night is going to be tough to predict, but I can try:

INDIANA FEVER @ SUN

Time: Tuesday, 8 p.m. EDT

Place: TD Garden; Boston, Mass.

Records: Indiana 11-10; Connecticut 3-18

TV: ESPN

Line: Indiana -15.5

Absences: Indiana - NONE.

Connecticut - Marina Mabrey (out, knee).

History between them: I guess the last meeting is history, I’m not sure if we’ll have any carryover on Tuesday night, Mabrey not playing will help, but honestly, if there is, it’s probably good news for the Sun because it means they’re probably in the game, at least. One of the three Sun wins came at Indiana (without Caitlin Clark), but Connecticut also did very well against Caitlin Clark and Indiana last season, sweeping them 2-0 in the first round of the playoffs (and prompting a WNBA rule change because the Fever never got a home game). The Sun also won the regular season series 3-1, including a lopsided win in Clark’s first regular season game. Indiana did beat Connecticut in the 2012 Eastern Conference final on the way to their only WNBA title, led by Finals MVP Tamika Catchings, even though Tina Charles was the 2012 league MVP.

What to look for: There are still aren’t many holes in Indiana’s offensive game (which it showed by crushing Dallas Sunday), despite the fact Caitlin Clark’s stats are not great in the first half of the season, and she missed nine games. Clark is shooting just 37.4% from the field, 28.9% from three-point range, and a league-leading 5.1 turnovers per game. Which is kind of scary, actually, with the Fever already averaging 1.085 points per possession and their net rating of +6.5 behind just New York and Minnesota despite just an 11-10 record. So if you’re waiting for the Fever to fail in the second half of the season, the computers say you might be waiting a while.

The Sun are up to 0.947 points per possession, which is still pretty far in dead last in the WNBA, but things have been looking up in the last three games (at least two of the three, at least). And Indiana has been pretty average on defense, prone to fouling (shocking if you watched the last game, I know). Regardless of what happens, we hope Connecticut still shows a competent offense because if they don’t, they could be in for a long night. 

Key players:  Indiana: Aliyah Boston - Boston was recently voted eighth (one ahead of teammate Caitlin Clark) in the midseason MVP race per ESPN, but the advanced metrics have her much better. Boston is averaging 16.9 points per game, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and is shooting 58.9% from the field, all of which adds up to being second in the WNBA in win shares currently to Napheesa Collier. Boston was the No. 1 overall pick and Rookie of the Year in 2023 and is now a three-time All-Star, so she should probably be talked about more.

Connecticut: Jacy Sheldon - Sheldon had eight points in the first quarter Sunday, then was basically forgotten about in the second half for the second straight game. Even when it was an obvious the Sun needed a three, Sheldon remained on the bench as Rachid Meziane has made it pretty clear that Saniya Rivers and Leila Lacan are his backcourt right now. A lot of that is defense, but Sheldon’s best defensive game of the season was against Clark the last time these two teams met, so we shall see.

Advanced stat:  81.7% vs. 61.7% - Percentage of Aliyah Boston’s field goal attempts that come inside 10 feet vs. Tina Charles, showing how effective Boston has been at getting the ball near the rim and taking advantage. Some of that may be the attention Caitlin Clark gets, but a lot of that is Boston.

Tactical spotlight: See the Advanced Stat above, Connecticut is going to have to find a way to slow down Aliyah Boston as well as Caitlin Clark, and it is much easier said than done. It sounds crazy, but the way Clark is shooting, it’s almost best to live with her shooting threes at the moment in a pick your poison situation. Of course, they just hung 102 on Dallas with Clark shooting 4-for-14 from the field because Kelsey Mitchell and Natasha Howard, who we haven’t even mentioned yet, went off. The Fever have the offensive weapons to compete for a title if Clark gets hot again.

On the other end, there’s no reason Connecticut shouldn’t have some success if it can hit shots. The Sun had a brutal shooting night (3-for-21) last month in Indiana. Tina Charles probably wants the All-Star break more than anyone, and we’ll see if she can get herself going for one last game before that. The Fever haven’t had a look at Lacan yet, and they like to put Lexie Hull on whomever they think is most dangerous, so it will be interesting to see if it’s Rivers, Lacan, or someone else.

Inside the numbers: 9 - Number of days after Tuesday until the Sun play again (at home against Los Angeles), so nothing to save it for in this one.

Prediction: 95-80 Indiana