Sun @ Valkyries preview: Has Nakase already clinched Coach of the Year?

It was a nice story while it lasted, but the signs that expansion Golden State was finally going to come back to earth were visible before July 27, and once the Sun recorded its biggest victory of the season (by far) 95-64 at Mohegan Sun Arena, that was it for the upstart’s playoff hopes, for sure.

They had other ideas, winning three straight - all on the road (the Sun have just one road victory all season) - and after stumbling against Las Vegas twice, picked up an emphatic and key 72-59 win over previously streaking Los Angeles Saturday night to climb back to .500 at 15-15 and right in the thick of the playoff race in their inaugural season.

Saturday’s win encompassed everything that has made the Valkyries so successful under Natalie Nakase. The Sparks came in scoring 100 in four of their last five games, but scored just 23 points in the first half. Golden State defended the paint first, forcing LA to take 34 three-pointers. Perhaps most importantly, when they missed, Golden State gave them no second chances, limiting them to just five offensive rebounds (13.9% of misses).

Natalie Nakase is the favorite for WNBA Coach of the Year
in her first season (Getty Images / NBAE)

At the other end, Golden State is going to take a lot of threes of their own, they’re going to miss some, but they’re going to get them up. They are still 10th in the league in offensive efficiency, but they are third in offensive rebounding, and Natalie Nakase knows it’s tough to prepare for and gives her current roster the best chance it has to win games.

Speaking of Nakase, if she’s not a unanimous WNBA Coach of the Year at this point, some eyebrows will be raised. Some apologies to Cheryl Reeve, who has Minnesota five games ahead of the field as we head down the stretch and to Nate Tibbetts, who has Phoenix in contention despite missing his best players for large swaths of the campaign, of course.

But before the season, Connecticut and Golden State (maybe with a little of Washington) were talked about as fighting it out for the cellar of the WNBA and the Valkyries have left the Sun way, way behind.

It’s OK to be a little frustrated about that, right?

What else can we look for as the Sun finish up their final west coast swing of the season in the only game on the WNBA slate Monday night?:

 

SUN @ GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES

Time: Monday, 10 p.m. EDT

Place: Chase Center; San Francisco, Calif.

Records: Connecticut 5-25; Golden State 15-15

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Golden State -8.5 

Absences: Connecticut - NONE.

Golden State - Kayla Thornton (out, season-ending knee); Monique Billings (out, ankle).

History between them: Both games between them this season have been blowouts. Golden State obliterated the Sun last month in San Francisco, leading by 27 at the half and holding Connecticut to just 30.3% shooting from the field. Then Connecticut had that destruction on July 27. Those were the first two meetings ever, so there’s not much history at all. Other than the Los Angeles Sparks, the only other WNBA team to ever call California home were the Sacramento Monarchs, who won the 2005 WNBA title over the Sun, led by Yolanda Griffith. Taj McWilliams-Franklin, Nykesha Sales, and Lindsay Whalen led Connecticut.

What to look for: Golden State plays much better at home, with good reason when you’re playing in front of 19,000 people every night, and couple that with the Sun’s 1-13 record on the road and the fact that this is a back-to-back for Connecticut and that may not bode well, although the Sun has at least fought in these spots this season. While Golden State’s 31-point loss a couple of weeks back (their worst of the season) was not technically a back-to-back, the Valkyries were forced to play at night, then fly cross-country for an afternoon game the day after (and a 10 a.m. PDT start), so they’ll be motivated to avenge that one.

The Sun harassed the Valkyries into 22 turnovers in the last meeting with Leila Lacan getting six steals, and it’s certainly something Connecticut will look to do again. Carla Leite didn’t have any of those turnovers, however, and has seen more minutes of late. A lot may depend on how tightly the game is called and the amount of energy the Sun can find in the second half of a back-to-back. 

Key players:  Connecticut: Tina Charles - Charles was a +39 in that last meeting with Golden State, one of the best numbers in WNBA history. But we’ll see how much she plays after yesterday and whether she can be as effective. It is a good matchup for her.

Golden State: Veronica Burton -  Burton is a good defender anyway, but has stepped it up to a different level lately and will probably draw Mabrey as an assignment. She has also shot 36.8% from behind the arc and is averaging 10.4 points per game as well.

Advanced stat:  75.8 - Average number of possessions per game for Golden State, the slowest pace in the league. Nakase knows her team plays its best defense in the half-court, and if it’s a slow game, that probably doesn’t help the Sun, with the athleticism their youngsters bring.

Tactical spotlight: See above, it will be interesting to see how much Connecticut wants to force pace in the back-to-back. Rivers, Lacan, and even Hartley to some extent have really pushed pace in recent games and is has allowed for early looks for one of them or Mabrey. Of course, they have to get stops and rebound the ball for that to happen as well. Connecticut shot Las Vegas out of their zone and has looked more comfortable against it lately, the Valkyries play the most zone in the league.

The Sun, especially Lacan and Rivers, will probably look to chase people like Cecilia Zandalasini off the three-point line, but we’ll see if that’s the move to make if they’re getting fouled at the rim a lot. And the Sun have to rebound misses. 

Inside the numbers: 45.4 - Percentage of Golden State shots that are three-pointers. So you know what’s coming. Now you have to rebound the misses.

Prediction: 78-66 Golden State