Sun @ Valkyries preview: Where has Golden State succeeded where Connecticut hasn't so far?

One of the disturbing things about looking forward in the near future for the Connecticut Sun is they have recently lost at home to Chicago and Dallas, both battles that went to the final buzzer, but it seems pretty clear in the 2025 WNBA hierarchy that those are currently the worst three teams in the league.


The next time the Sun meet either of those teams is Aug. 13, basically a whole summer away.


One team not mentioned in that group that we might have expected to be there are the Golden State Valkyries, Sunday’s opponent. The expansion team comes in at an even 6-6, enough to put Natalie Nakase right in the middle of the WNBA Coach of the Year race, and a little of their success has to do with massive crowds and a home-court advantage, but the simple answer is defense.


Connecticut (13th), Chicago (12th), and Dallas (11th) sit rooted to the bottom of the WNBA defensive efficiency ratings, while Golden State checks in at a respectable seventh, miles (.1 ppp, which is miles in basketball analytics) in front of the other three. 

Natalie Nakase and former Sun player Veronica Burton (Imagn Images)


A quick look at the roster (mostly from the expansion draft) doesn’t exactly read like a team with many lockdown defenders, with the possible exception of Kayla Thornton - whom the analytics say was excellent for the Liberty the last couple of seasons at the end - and someone we know well, Veronica Burton.


Nakase, like most coaches in the modern era, is a big fan of analytics, and the Valkyries have excelled defensively in the places that they can control. Teams are shooting just 47.3% against them from two-point range (behind just New York and Minnesota, and which speaks to Thornton and Temi Fagbenle) and Golden State has a 78.3% defensive rebounding rate (the Sun are now at 69.9% as we explored after the Dallas game), second to Atlanta. 


Teams that punch above their weight control stats like that, and Nakase has done it masterfully. Offensively, the Valkyries have struggled (now 11th), especially shooting from behind the arc. They have taken the second most threes in the W (behind New York), but are shooting just 27.4%, by far worst in the league (yes, even Connecticut). That’s probably something Nakase will look to upgrade in the next couple of seasons, but for now, she knows it’s still probably best to fire away and hope for the best.


Can the rebuilding Sun learn from Nakase and Golden State? I think they sure can. Finding players that can defend is a start, but also focusing on things that are most important, which have eluded Connecticut so far this season.


What else can we look for as Sun go to the west coast for the first time in the 2025 regular season Sunday night?:



 

SUN @ GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES


Time: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT


Place: Chase Center; San Francisco, Calif.


Records: Connecticut 2-11; Golden State 6-6


TV: WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports Boston


Line: Golden State -6.5 


Absences: Connecticut - Marina Mabrey (questionable, knee); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

Golden State - Temi Fagbenle (out, in Europe); Janelle Salaun (out, in Europe); Julie Vanloo (out, in Europe); Cecilia Zandalasini (out, in Europe).

 

History between them: It’s the first meeting, so there’s no history at all. Other than the Los Angeles Sparks, the only other WNBA team to ever call California home were the Sacramento Monarchs, who won the 2005 WNBA title over the Sun, led by Yolanda Griffith. Taj McWilliams-Franklin, Nykesha Sales, and Lindsay Whalen starred for Connecticut.


What to look for: As you can see, there have been big changes in Golden State’s roster thanks to EuroBasket currently going on, which should give the Sun a break, but the Valkyries went out and beat Indiana 88-77 Thursday night, holding Caitlin Clark to just 11 points (and 0-for-7 from behind the arc) using a combination of Tiffany Hayes, Burton, and Kayla Thornton, and getting a great quote out of Nakase: “We were being disruptive. We know that (Clark) doesn’t like physicality. We know that she wants to get to that left step-back. … We were just making sure that she wasn’t getting into rhythm and then that she was just seeing multiple bodies.”


If they can do that to Clark, surely it’s going to be rough for a banged up Marina Mabrey (if she plays). But the real battle may be in the paint, where the Sun have focused of late and where the Valkyries have been so good defensively. Tina Charles, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and crew are going to need help from their guards to score points.


Really the only thing holding the Valkyries back offensively is their three-point shooting, so if they start hitting Sunday, it might be lights out, but Connecticut still has to rebound even if they miss, the Valkyries rebound 26.3% of their misses, fifth in the WNBA (which makes some sense with a lot of long rebounds).


Key players:  Connecticut: Saniya Rivers- Nakase and the Valkyries are all about playing the percentages and Rivers is shooting 24.2% from behind the arc, so it stands to reason she may get some looks. She did hit some big shots in Connecticut’s win over Indiana, so if she can get going, it could spark the Sun offense.


Golden State: Carla Leite - Leite, who was picked up from Dallas in the expansion draft, has somehow become a key player despite shooting 10.3% (not a typo) from three-point range this season. She got her third start of the season in that Indiana win.


Advanced stat:  1.4 - Win shares for Veronica Burton, tops on Golden State this season, way ahead of anyone on Connecticut (Nelson-Ododa continues to lead at 0.6, no one else is higher than 0.1). It’s almost like the Sun could use a player like that on their roster.


Tactical spotlight: Trying to see how much the Sun can get Charles involved will be interesting, especially if Mabrey doesn’t play. Golden State has no doubt watched film of Connecticut’s last few games where they look to go inside early and often to start things. But that seems like a tall order with Monique Billings and/or Laeticia Amihere being in there.


Obviously, there’s not too many tactics toward defensive rebounding, but hopefully the Sun went over how bad that looked against Dallas in the film session and the shootaround. There are enough things for then to overcome without giving up second and third chances.


Inside the numbers: 16 - Days between home games for the Sun, who will not be at Mohegan Sun Arena again until July 6 against Las Vegas. Lots could change by then.


Prediction: 78-66 Golden State

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