Sun @ Mercury preview: Let the kids play, please

The Sun are back on the road for the first time in three weeks, and it’s a very grueling four-game west coast trip in seven days. But (and the Sun are not alone in this, obviously) it won’t stop there, Connecticut will play its last 17 games in 36 days leading into the season finale against Atlanta on Sept. 10.

It won’t leave time for much reflection, which is a shame for a young team like the Sun, who needs practices to really improve, but that’s the way it’s going to be for the foreseeable future unless the new bargaining agreement changes things dramatically.

At least the Sun are healthy, other teams are not so lucky, although the Mercury - who have dealt with injuries almost all season - are also nearly full strength, minus Satou Sabally’s absence for personal reasons.

Leila Lacan would be third in the WNBA in steals if
she had enough games to qualify. (Chris Poss)

Obviously we don’t want to run anyone into the ground, but I hope Rachid Meziane and the Sun give the young players a chance to get plenty of minutes in the final month of the season. I would love to see Leila Lacan, Saniya Rivers, and Aneesah Morrow lead the team in minutes, with Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Jacy Sheldon getting plenty of run as well.

There is a place for Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey, the Sun’s top two leading scorers, obviously. Bria Hartley can get some minutes as well, and they’re going to need to go a little deeper in some games for various reasons. Currently, Mabrey (29.8) and Charles (28.6) lead the Sun in minutes by a wide margin, and - to be fair - neither ranks in the top 20 in the WNBA in that category.

I mentioned in the recap of the Liberty win Friday, the most fun lineup for me came in the second quarter when Lacan, Rivers, Morrow, and Nelson-Ododa were all on the floor together.

But, according to the WNBA advanced stats, that lineup has appeared just twice this season for a total of five minutes. 

Will we see more of it Tuesday night (late on the east coast) in Phoenix?:

 

SUN @ PHOENIX MERCURY 

Time: Tuesday, 10 p.m. EDT

Place: PHX Arena; Phoenix, Ariz.

Records: Connecticut 5-22; Phoenix 17-11

TV: WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports Boston

Line: Phoenix -14.5 

Absences: Connecticut- NONE.

Phoenix - Satou Sabally (questionable, personal reasons).

 

History between them: Phoenix won the first meeting this season at Mohegan Sun Arena, 83-75, as Alyssa Thomas just missed a triple-double (what else is new), but Connecticut did battle until the end. The Sun are 33-25 all-time against Phoenix and had won nine of the last 11 in the series, including sweeping four games in 2024. The Mercury did eliminate the Sun in both the 2017 and 2018 quarterfinals, both at Mohegan Sun Arena, the only two times they met in the playoffs.

What to look for: Phoenix - ironically - has stumbled since getting back to full strength and adding DeWanna Bonner (we know her) to the fold, losing five of six before beating a wounded and fairly hapless Chicago team on Sunday. The Mercury won without Satou Sabally, who was out for personal reasons, and remains a question mark for this game, she had 15 rebounds in the first meeting between the two teams. The Sky actually led early and had a big advantage in the paint, but Natasha Mack was able to be a force. Once Chicago started missing, they didn't get back on defense, and Thomas and company basically ran them off the floor in transition.

Phoenix plays sort of how Connecticut would like to be down the road, they force a lot of turnovers, but have trouble fouling too much when struggling. When they don’t cause turnovers, they can be a bad defensive team, giving up 95.3 points per game in their last four losses. The Sun obviously aren’t great at outscoring people and defending Thomas seems like a tough ask, but they have looked better on the offensive end, and if they can keep the turnover number down and get good looks, they could put up some points.

Key players:  Phoenix: Kahleah Copper- Copper is hitting 45.3% from behind the three-point arc this season and has been hot of late, even as the Mercury as a whole have cooled off. She averaged 21.1 points per game in her first year in Phoenix last season, finishing eighth in the MVP voting (Alyssa Thomas was fifth and DeWanna Bonner was tied for 14th if you’re scoring at home). She doesn’t dole out many assists or light up the stat sheet like Thomas does, but if she gets hot, she can be unstoppable.

Connecticut: Aneesah Morrow - Morrow had a very good game in the last meeting with Phoenix: 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 steals, and she has a lot more experience and confidence now. It sets up as a decent matchup for her, especially if Sabally doesn’t play. Hopefully she gets a lot of minutes to show what she can do.

Advanced stat:  53.4 - Assist rate for Alyssa Thomas, which is just absurd for anyone, let alone a “power forward”. By contrast, Mabrey leads the Sun at 26.5. Caitlin Clark checks in at 47.6, but next currently after that in the WNBA is Courtney Williams with 36.9. The Sun obviously know how valuable she was over the years, but it’s certainly true this season as well. 

Tactical spotlight: So how do you guard Thomas? Very carefully, I guess. She’s been looking for her shot more lately, taking 22 shots against Indiana (scoring 32 points) and 17 against Washington, but the Mercury lost both those games, so maybe let her score her points and don’t help as much off her? It seems like a good matchup for Nelson-Ododa, but what does that leave everywhere else?

On the other end, Phoenix’s weakness - like Connecticut - is fouling too much, so can people like Rivers, Lacan, and Morrow get to the rim where there isn’t really a rim protector when Natasha Mack is not in the game. The Mercury have been stingy in allowing teams to shoot, especially from behind the arc, but we’ll see.

Inside the numbers: 1.9 - Number of steals per game for Leila Lacan, which would be third in the WNBA (behind Gabby Williams and Ariel Atkins) if she had played enough games to qualify.

Prediction: 87-80 Phoenix