Sun @ Lynx preview: How many games are too many?

With all the injuries in the WNBA, there’s been a lot of talk about the schedule, and if you’re reading this, you probably understand, Sunday will be the Sun’s eighth game in 14 days, and while they haven’t played considerably worse at the end of these stretches, it certainly wore Marina Mabrey down and might have contributed to her picking up a knee injury.

She’s not alone, obviously the biggest stars the league has to offer: Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Jonquel Jones, Kelsey Plum, and Napheesa Collier - whom Connecticut will play Sunday - have been out for varying periods of time and the regular season is only a third through.

You’d surmise that would send up red flags to the league front office, but of course, higher above them on the hierarchy are the people that write the big checks, namely the television partners

The MNBA has the same problem trying to squeeze 82 games into a regular season, obviously their contracts tend to be a lot bigger, however, it doesn’t stop the “shut up and dribble” folk from speaking out against a league with mostly young Black players.

So you can imagine what the “shut up and dribble” folk are saying about women complaining about playing too much basketball. 

We don’t care about them so much, but those people that write the checks unfortunately do, and so we get Indiana playing as many games on national television as possible, four more games crammed into the same time period, and teams playing eight or nine games in two weeks.

There’s a new collective bargaining agreement on the horizon, and we’ll see what concessions the players can get on such matters. But if the men couldn’t get much, I’m not holding out hope that the WNBA can do much better.

But always understand that, no matter how much the league grows, player safety has to remain paramount. On all fronts. And no matter what team you play for.

For now, it’s on to Minnesota Sunday night to end the Sun’s rough road trip:

                SUN @ MINNESOTA LYNX

Time: Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Target Center; Minneapolis, Minn.

Records: Connecticut 2-14; Minnesota 13-2

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Minnesota -19.5 (could be worse)

Absences: Connecticut - Marina Mabrey (out, knee); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe).

Minnesota - NONE.

 

History between them: It seems like ages ago, but it was only a month ago that Connecticut had a 15-point lead with seven minutes left (and had led the whole way) before the Lynx went on an 18-0 run and pulled the game out. It would still be shocking to see the Sun in that situation, again, but who knows?

Obviously the semifinal series in 2024 between the two teams went five games. The Sun won the regular season 2024 series 2-1 and leads the regular season series 32-27. The only other time the two met in the playoffs was 2023 when Connecticut eliminated Minnesota in three games in the quarterfinals.

What to look for: The Sun built their lead last month by getting hot from three-point range (led by Marina Mabrey) and watching the Lynx just struggle from the outside. It was Collier who put the Lynx on her back (as she did in the playoffs), finishing with 33 points and 11 rebounds as Connecticut just collapsed in the fourth quarter. We’d like to say the Sun wouldn’t do that anymore, but we really haven’t seen them in situations like that to know much, have we?

I mentioned in last month’s preview that you might be wise to take (if you are inclined to do so) Minnesota at +340 to win the WNBA title and I still think that’s not a bad idea at the +240 it is now (the Liberty are still fairly overwhelming favorites for the public). The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive efficiency and opposing field goal percentage. They are in the top two in every defensive advanced metric except rebounding, which makes a little sense because they don’t really have a dominating center, using Collier and Alanna Smith (and a little Jessica Shepard) to try to make up the difference, which also includes some brutal matchups on the other end, as Collier and Smith can both step out and shoot three-pointers as well.

For the Sun to be competitive, they’re going to have to score, which looked better against Seattle, for everything else that didn’t go well. Olivia Nelson-Ododa continues to improve offensively, and if Saniya Rivers can make a few shots, maybe there’s a chance to stay in it. 

Key players:  Connecticut: Tina Charles - We mentioned the tiredness in the opening here and Charles looked very tied against Seattle, shooting just 1-for-9 from the field, scoring seven points. Charles, to her credit, has played in every game this season, and has bounced back from a couple of other poor games, and the Sun will need another.

Minnesota: Natisha Hiedeman - The former Sun player (who isn’t at this point?) doesn’t have great overall numbers, shooting just 28.9% from three-point range, but it seems like every time the Lynx need a big play when they’re struggling, Hiedeman is there to bail them out.

Advanced stat:  1.2 - Defensive win shares for Napheesa Collier this season, tied with Gabby Williams for the WNBA lead (Nelson-Ododa leads the Sun at 0.7, with Aneesah Morrow second on Connecticut at 0.1).

Tactical spotlight: Meziane has ran a lot of “Iverson” sets trying to get Saniya Rivers isolated and able to drive to the rim, and if she gets the right matchup, that might be successful if Rivers can find the right pass out of the drive. It’s also another team that Morrow sets up well against, although if she’s going up against Collier, that’s going to be a learning experience, for sure.

Inside the numbers: 42.9% - Anessah Morrow’s three-point shooting percentage this season. Teams are going to know that, too, but if she can keep up something remotely close to that, she will be a matchup problem for years to come.

Prediction: 94-74 Minnesota