Sun @ Aces preview: Others are improving, why not Connecticut?

Not going to lie, I was a little jealous watching Dallas and Chicago pick up big home wins Tuesday night, sparked by a lot of energy and confidence. The Wings - brutal statistically on defense - completely shut down Atlanta, while the Sky - who have had all kinds of trouble scoring, especially without Courtney Vandersloot - dug out of a big hole and ran past Los Angeles convincingly.

Those types of days are coming for the Sun, right? Right?

To be fair, we did have two of those games this season, even though they seem like decades ago with how the last few have gone. And, as we said after Golden State (or even before), none of the teams on this west coast trip are going to feel sorry for Connecticut’s plight, least of all Las Vegas, who has struggled mightily for much of 2025, just 6-7 and the analytics back that up, with the Aces just ninth in overall net rating (just ahead of Dallas, of all teams, in 10th).

Marina Mabrey on crutches Sunday, June 22 (Eakin Howard)

And Las Vegas appeared to be headed for a fourth straight loss Sunday on national television against Caitlin Clark and Indiana before they mounted an impressive fourth-quarter comeback in an 89-81 win. Does that mean the Aces - 2022 and 2023 WNBA champions, of course - have turned the corner and are ready to go on a run, just in time for a punchless Sun team to show up in Sin City Wednesday night?

Everything, including what the oddsmakers are saying, certainly points that way. But there’s always hope, isn’t there, and that’s what will keep us up late tonight to see if maybe something unexpected will happen.

What else can we look for in a rematch of the 2022 WNBA finals?:

SUN @ LAS VEGAS ACES

Time: Wednesday, 10 p.m. EDT

Place: Michelob Ultra Arena; Paradise, Nev.

Records: Connecticut 2-12; Las Vegas 6-7

TV: WNBA League Pass, NBA TV, NBC Sports Boston

Line: Las Vegas -19.5 (ouch) 

Absences: Connecticut - Marina Mabrey (out, knee); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

Las Vegas - Megan Gustafson (out, leg).

 

History between them: Back on May 20 at Mohegan Sun Arena, the Aces obliterated the Sun 87-62, leading 52-29 at the half and 78-46 after three quarters. It is by far their biggest win of the season to date. Las Vegas swept all three games last season from Connecticut, but the Sun lead the overall series 33-25 (not all of them as the Aces). However, the Aces won both playoff series, the final in 2022 (in four games) and the semifinal in 2020.

What to look for: It’s really hard to pinpoint where it’s gone wrong for the Aces this season, there is not one stat that jumps out at you as worse than the others, which may make it harder for Becky Hammon and her staff to fix. It’s hard to say A’ja Wilson is struggling when she’s averaging 21.7 points and 9.8 rebounds (as well as a career-high 3.7 assists), but her shooting percentage is down, just 46.1% from inside the arc after shooting 53.1%, 56.5%, and 53.1% the last three seasons. That is the biggest reason (along with being 11th in offensive rebounding, behind the Sun) the Aces are just ninth in offensive efficiency, they’re still shooting pretty well from behind the arc (34.7%, fifth in the W).

The Aces also lack depth of any kind after veterans Wilson, Jewell Loyd, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young, which is why it was so big that rookie Aaliyah Nye stepped up with 11 points in the win over Indiana. Dana Evans has also come off the bench, but hasn’t scored in double digits since the season opener. So, it’s tough to say because this may age like milk in this 100-degree heat by midnight, but it looks like the Sun have to make Las Vegas get to the rim, Loyd is shooting 41.3% from three-point range (including 6-of-9 against the Sun in May), but just 31.7% on two-point shots. But bookmark this when Wilson goes for 50 and 15 or something.

Where will the Sun offense come from with Marina Mabrey out? Is the shrug emoji still a thing? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Connecticut’s efficiency numbers come with a warning label these days, but the main problem - as it has all season - is shooting the ball, they have a woeful eFG% of 44.3%, way behind anyone else in the WNBA. Jacy Sheldon has been a shining light of late and is at an eFG% of 58.4%, miles ahead of anyone but Jaelyn Brown, who is 7-for-13 from behind the arc this season.

Key players:  Connecticut: Jacy Sheldon- Sheldon is Connecticut’s biggest offensive threat with Mabrey out (at least outside the paint, obviously Tina Charles is in there). Sheldon needs to look for her own shot, but that’s a bit of a Catch-22 because the Aces will certainly have a bigger target on her based on how well she’s shooting. Her defensive numbers are also mediocre so the Aces may try to exploit Sheldon on that end, too.

Las Vegas: A’ja Wilson - Picking the three-time MVP isn’t exactly digging deep here, but as I said before, her shooting from 10-15 feet has been way off this season, and it’s hurt the Aces on offense (even against Indiana, she was only 8-for-20 from two-point range). If she starts hitting those early, might be a long night for the Sun.

Advanced stat:  23.9% - Usage rate for Aneesah Morrow, third behind Charles and Mabrey on the Sun, meaning that she’s not afraid to take shots when she gets her chances in games. Compare that to Sheldon, who sits at only 13.4%, much more reluctant to pull the trigger.

Tactical spotlight: The final score didn’t indicate it, but the Sun were actually in the game for most of the first half against Golden State, but scored just 25 points in the second and third quarters combined. Rachid Meziane is in a bit of a bind because I think he needs Olivia Nelson-Ododa on the floor, her analytics on defense are that good, but she doesn’t help much on the offensive end? But who does on the current roster? Can he play ONO, Tina Charles, and Aneesah Morrow together? To me, that seems to be the way to go with Sheldon and Saniya Rivers at guard and see what happens. As Meziane knows, though, not a lot of offense might happen with that lineup for a team already at a dreadful 0.939 points per possession. The only other W team below 1.028 ppp is Chicago (0.992 ppp).

At the other end, as I wrote before, Las Vegas has not been a good shooting team from inside the arc and has been bad at offensive rebounding as well. Loyd and Young combined to go 8-for-11 from three-point range in the first meeting, and the Sun have to avoid giving up open looks at all costs and then have to rebound misses, they’ve given up an astounding 36 offensive rebounds in their last two contests.

Inside the numbers: 179 - Two-point attempts by Tina Charles this season, tops in the WNBA. Wilson would probably be right up there with her if she hadn’t missed time with a concussion.

Prediction: 90-75 Las Vegas