Sun @ Fever preview: Battle of attrition begins

 The great thing about sports is that no matter how badly the last game went, there is always another one, at least until the season ends, of course.

And so, the Sun will go again tomorrow night in Indiana, who will be without Caitlin Clark, but it looks like Connecticut might not have Marina Mabrey or Olivia Nelson-Ododa, so that’s a wash, right? I mentioned in Tuesday’s recap, I’m not sure what Mabrey’s future in Connecticut is, as someone who has struggled mightily with being the opponents’ center of attention as has made it clear she would probably rather be with someone else anyway.


So with her out, we might get a chance to see more of, well, who? Bria Hartley got 19 minutes Tuesday and looked exhausted and the Sun don’t really have any other available guard options. A lot of Saniya Rivers and Jacy Sheldon, I guess.


If ONO can’t go, the frontcourt is pretty thin, too, her most likely replacement for minutes is Kariata Diaby, who has played a total of 37 minutes this season and committed eight fouls.


But if defense was the biggest problem against Dallas, might a bigger dose of Rivers and Aneesah Morrow (whom Rachid Meziane has said he doesn’t want to push too hard coming off a college season and an injury) help in that cause?


Interestingly, Indiana - even at 2-3 - has been outstanding defensively this season, entering Friday third in defensive efficiency (behind New York and Phoenix) and second in field goal defense, which probably doesn’t bode well for a Sun offense without Mabrey.


But, hey, it can’t be worse than the last two games, can it? Can it?


What else can we look in Indianapolis Friday night?:


 

SUN @ INDIANA FEVER


Time: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT


Place: Gainbridge Fieldhouse; Indianapolis, Ind.


Records: Connecticut 0-5; Indiana 2-3


TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston


Line: Indiana -12.5


Absences: Connecticut - Marina Mabrey (questionable, quad); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (questionable, knee); Lindsay Allen (out, hamstring); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

Indiana - Caitlin Clark (out, quad).

 

History between them: Connecticut did very well against Caitlin Clark and Indiana last season, sweeping them 2-0 in the first round of the playoffs (and prompting a WNBA rule change because the Fever never got a home game). The Sun also won the regular season series 3-1, including a lopsided win in Clark’s first regular season game. Indiana did beat Connecticut in the 2012 Eastern Conference final on the way to their only WNBA title, led by Finals MVP Tamika Catchings, even though Tina Charles was the 2012 league MVP.


What to look for: This might be a bit of a mess early with all the absences. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Fever have already shown significant defensive improvement under Stephanie White (we miss you), we know what that looks like and how she gets teams to play. If Nelson-Ododa doesn’t play, Aliyah Boston may smell blood. It’s easy to forget Boston is only 23 and is averaging 16.8 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, and it’s not clear who is going to stop her from the Sun if she gets going.


Surely, the Sun focused on defense the last couple of days and will surely set their sights on Kelsey Mitchell, who went just 4-for-16 from the field in Indiana’s first game without Clark Wednesday and is just 5-for-20 from three-point range in her last three games. Sheldon did such a good job on Arike Ogunbowale Tuesday and it didn’t really matter, but Indiana doesn’t have a Paige Bueckers to run the show.


If Mabrey can’t play, the Sun are obviously limited offensively, but it does give a chance for someone else to step up. The second-leading scorer (after Charles) on the floor tomorrow could be Hartley (who is shooting 41.2% from three-point range) at 8.4 points per game. Are Rivers or Sheldon capable of putting up 20-25 points in a WNBA regular season game? We’ll find out.


Key players:  Connecticut: Kariata Diaby - Diaby might have been a longshot to make the roster at all from the beginning of camp, but her familiarity with Meziane and size got her a spot and now both will be needed in large supply in taking on Boston and company.


Indiana: Sophie Cunningham - Cunningham has been dealing with injuries, but she was a big pickup in the offseason for the Fever, but is averaging only 5.3 points per game and didn’t make a field goal against Washington Wednesday. But she is a career 36.2% three-point shooter, so she might as well pick this game to get hot.


Advanced stat:  +7.5 - Rating for the Fever (how much better its offense is than its defense), which indicates they are very unlucky to be 2-3, and hopefully that won’t regress to the mean tomorrow.


Tactical spotlight: Somehow we got this far and haven’t mentioned DeWanna Bonner yet which is criminal of me, sorry. Bonner has struggled out of the gate like Cunningham and is averaging just 6.2 points per game. She has averaged double digits in all 15 seasons she’s played in the WNBA and scored 21 against Washington Wednesday. She didn’t start, however, and I’m not sure who will match up with her when she does come in the game, but it could end badly for the Sun if the matchup is bad.


Inside the numbers: 1 - Winless teams in the WNBA after Chicago beat Dallas Thursday night. So there’s that.


Prediction: 80-66 Indiana



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