Sun @ Dream preview: The end is near for 2025

We’ve reached the point of the season where everyone is looking to the playoffs, there are some seeds still to be set, but for teams out of the running, it’s time to begin to look around and see who is going and who is staying for 2026.

Luckily, the Sun - despite some of the chaos far away from the court - should be one of the more stable teams compared to this year going forward. Unless there are dramatic changes in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (and we hope there is one so there’s no delay to next season) and/or how players are protected for expansion, Connecticut’s young core of Aneesah Morrow, Saniya Rivers, Leila Lacan, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, and Aaliyah Edwards should be intact. Who is with them will be an open question.

And we’re pretty sure the 2026 season will take place at Mohegan Sun Arena as the saga of the sale and relocation of the franchise may take a back seat as the league tries to prevent disaster and pick up what should be sizable financial gain for everyone involved, most importantly the players.

Rhyne Howard hit 9 three-pointers Saturday against the
Sparks. (Andrew J. Clark / Getty Images)

What does that mean for Monday’s game with Atlanta? Not a whole lot, but the Dream are one of the few teams with something to play for in the final few days of the regular season, currently tied with Las Vegas for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and potential homecourt advantage in the semifinals.

But they have to temper that with staying healthy with MVP candidate Allisha Gray nursing a knee injury and Jordin Canada coming back from a hamstring strain. Do they need them against a Sun team that will be shorthanded and might have one foot in the offseason? Probably, but they’ve watched film of Saturday’s game against Phoenix, so we’ll see how careful Karl Smesko and his staff are.

Two games to go, what else might we see in Atlanta on Monday night?:

 

SUN @ ATLANTA DREAM

Time: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT

Place: Gateway Center; College Park, Ga.

Records: Connecticut 11-31; Atlanta 28-14

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Atlanta -13.5

Absences: Connecticut - Leila Lacan (out, personal reasons); Bria Hartley (out, season ending knee); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (out, back).

Atlanta - Allisha Gray (questionable, knee); Jordin Canada (probable, hamstring); Taylor Thierry (out, ankle).

 

History between them: The two teams split the season series 2-2 in 2024, Atlanta leads this season 2-1, but there was a somewhat improbable 84-76 Sun win at Mohegan Sun Arena on June 6, the Dream’s only loss in an 8-1 stretch. The Sun have won eight of the last 12. The Sun and Dream have met only once in a playoff series, the 2011 Eastern Conference semifinals, which Atlanta swept 2-0. Tina Charles was in her second season in the WNBA and had 17 rebounds in a Game 2 loss.

What to look for: The beginning of the game should tell us a lot, unfortunately the Sun’s method of operation in road games that they get blown out is just to give up a ton of layups in the first quarter, and I’m sure Jordin Canada will be happy to oblige, especially with Leila Lacan now out. Brionna Jones will also impose her will and the Dream have gotten some great production from their bench as well at times this season. So while the focus will probably be on the Dream’s three-point shooting, totally understandable after hitting 19 in their last game against the Sparks, it’s inside the arc where the Sun have to take care of business first.

The Sun offense still wasn’t great on Saturday, but got by on guts, which will be a little harder to do on the road and against a team like the Dream. Without Lacan and Hartley, it will probably put a little more pressure on Marina Mabrey, who has taken advantage of being less of a focal point in recent games. It’s been tough for Tina Charles to post big numbers in back-to-back games and it certainly appeared she put everything on the line Saturday, so we’ll see how many minutes she goes Monday, although playing Morrow at the 4 and Aaliyah Edwards at the 5 against Brittany Griner could be difficult. Enter Rayah Marshall?

Key players:  Connecticut: Lindsay Allen - I really admire Allen’s professionalism this season, taking on a role where she’s seen limited minutes (or none at all sometimes) and been a contributor off the court. Her offense has just been lacking and she doesn’t pack the defensive punch that Lacan or Rivers do, but at 30 years old, these last two games could be a chance for her to showcase herself to others (or the Sun) for 2026.

Atlanta: Rhyne Howard - Howard hit 9 three-pointers against Los Angeles, and honestly looked like she was headed for more until she cooled off a bit in the second half. Tough to say given that, but she’s still only shooting 32.0% from behind the arc and her height makes it very difficult to contest her shot, so the Sun may just have to hope she misses and rebound to have a shot in this one, especially what is written above about the struggles they may have near the rim.

Advanced stat:  24.1% - Usage rate for Rhyne Howard, which leads Atlanta, but is not anywhere near the top 10 of the league (and way behind both Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey), showing how evenly distributed Smesko’s offense has been, and a good reason why the Dream are in the position they are in, it’s a very unselfish team.

Tactical spotlight: As I wrote before, keeping Canada in front of them seems to be the first order of business for the Sun, especially early in the game. I’m sure they will also try to get Brionna Jones involved, Connecticut has not been able to force turnovers in recent games, and without Lacan and Nelson-Ododa, it’s tough to see that changing here. So it’s probably just going to be a matter of Atlanta hopefully going cold, but we shall see.

There’s a little more optimism at the other end, as I pointed out before the last meeting, Atlanta allows the least three-point attempts (30.5% of shots), and that shouldn’t be as big an impediment for the Sun, who doesn’t want to take many anyway. The Dream also are best at defending layups (61.6%), which makes sense given their roster and the style that they play, to not hunt the ball and look for turnovers. The Sun are going to have to earn it by hitting shots.

Inside the numbers: 2 - Ranking of Atlanta in both offensive and defensive efficiency, so it’s certainly not a fluke that they’re fighting for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

Prediction: 92-80 Atlanta