Sun @ Liberty preview: No Lacan, but have people noticed Sun's improvement?

I write a lot about betting lines on the blog, maybe too much for your liking, but it’s not really about gambling, even though the Sun literally play in a casino which has a huge sportsbook (a pretty cool place to watch sports, actually, although it’s not exactly your typical WNBA clientele there). And it’s not because betting on WNBA games - and the assorted grimy things that come with it - are at an all-time high in 2025.

No, it’s mostly to get a read on what people are thinking. Early in the season, we saw mostly double-digit spreads against the sun (including an even 20 at Minnesota) and it was hard to argue with most of them, the Sun absorbed a trio of 35-point losses, the worst one coming on June 1 when they were beaten 100-52 in Brooklyn by the Liberty in a game that was, somewhat unbelievably, not nearly that close.

But almost since that date, those lines have slowly but surely gone down, accelerated once Leila Lacan got up to speed, to the point where the Sun (despite being 1-15 on the road), was just a 2.5-point underdog before beating Chicago Saturday.

Leila Lacan is doubtful for Monday's game with
an eye injury. (Michael Dwyer/ AP)

So imagine my surprise to wake up this morning and see a -15.5 number next to New York for Monday night’s first return to the scene of that 48-point crime against the Sun. The Liberty are the defending champs and all, granted, but they are beaten up and struggling at the moment, and the last time the two teams met, they split a two-game series at Mohegan Sun Arena with both games going down to the wire.

Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Natasha Cloud are all questionable for the game, will they risk those players for a game against the Sun?

But a bigger reason for the line (which has dropped to -12.5) may lie on the Sun’s injury report, which has been empty for most of the month. Leila Lacan is likely to miss Monday’s game after having her eye swell up thanks to a run-in with Angel Reese toward the end of Saturday’s game. We know she is right there with Gabby Williams for the league lead in steals and the Sun’s recent winning ways have coincided with her starting and playing more minutes, but can a 21-year-old rookie mean that much to a WNBA team.

I guess, sadly, we’re probably going to find out. But, either way, it’s a good test for the Sun to see how far they’ve actually come in the last few weeks, regardless of who is playing for New York, who could lose home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs if they aren’t careful.

It will obviously be a big difference between seeing a lineup of Cloud, Ionescu, Stewart, Emma Meesseman, and Jonquel Jones, and having 60% of that group out of uniform, but we might not know (and neither will the Sun) until Monday afternoon.

Which makes previewing this one tough, but let’s try anyway, shall we?:

SUN @ NEW YORK LIBERTY

Time: Monday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Barclays Center; Brooklyn, N.Y.

Records: Connecticut 9-27; New York 22-15

TV: NBC Sports Boston; WNBA League Pass

Line: New York -12.5

Absences: Connecticut - Leila Lacan (doubtful, eye); Rayah Marshall (out, personal).

New York - Breanna Stewart (questionable, knee); Sabrina Ionescu (questionable, foot); Natasha Cloud (questionable, nose); Nyara Sabally (knee, out).

 

History between them: Interestingly, the Liberty had beaten the Sun six straight times at Mohegan Sun Arena before Aug. 1, which included both games there in the 2023 WNBA semifinals (the Sun did win Game 1 in Brooklyn). The Sun actually won a game in Brooklyn last season, too, and did in this year’s preseason as well, but lost the season series 3-1 in 2024. The two teams have met four times in the playoffs, with the most recent being the aforementioned 2023 semifinals, which New York won in four games.

What to look for: When the Sun beat the Liberty on Aug. 1, Meesseman had just joined the team (and didn’t play) and Stewart was out, but the other three (Ionescu, Jones, and Cloud) did play, and the Sun held them to 20-for-61 shooting and turned them over 21 times. Jones, especially, has not been at her best for much of the season, still shooting the ball well, but having trouble in the paint against physical players, not a Connecticut strength, although Aneesah Morrow had 11 rebounds (6 offensive in that win) and should be helped by Aaliyah Edwards.

The Liberty - especially at full strength - are probably the wrong team to take a step back without Lacan defensively. Bria Hartley went off Saturday, but the lineup is not as good without her in it, and if New York starts getting hot from outside, it can be tough to stop. New York is mediocre defensively (sixth) despite being just behind Golden State for the league lead in field goal % defense. They don’t force many turnovers, and don’t really rebound at all, the only team worse is Connecticut. So you’d think the Sun, in their current form, should be able to score, and I can’t believe I’m saying that.

Key players:  New York: Jonquel Jones- If you’re a Sun fan, you obviously know what Jones is capable of, she nearly led the Sun to a couple of titles before moving on to the big city. On the surface, her numbers look solid, but she’s only the fourth most valuable Liberty player according to the advanced stats with 3.1 win shares (and just ahead of Leonie Fiebich). She was at 6.5 last season, and 6.6 when she won the MVP with the Sun in 2021.

Connecticut: Aneesah Morrow - Her performance in the win over the Liberty was among her best of the season, and it might be a team she could compete in the paint, although it will likely be Meesseman she’s guarding to start the game. If she can make some shots at the other end, she’ll be tough to guard.

Advanced stat:  16.1% - Percent of opposing possessions that have ended in turnovers against the Sun this season, now just .005% behind Minnesota for second in the WNBA (Seattle leads at 16.7%).

Tactical spotlight: New York still leads the league in pace, but the Sun - especially with its rookies in the lineup - have shown they are comfortable running the floor as well. Tina Charles did get beat a couple of times in that 100-52 debacle and losing Lacan will hurt, but Edwards has shown the ability to get up and down and Nelson-Ododa is adept at that as well. Still, finding shooters will be key.

As I wrote before, New York’s defense has not been great for a lot of this season, and obviously a lot of that is Stewart, a very underrated defender. But the Sun should get looks, and have looked much more confident in taking them, whether it be Hartley, Nelson-Ododa, or Saniya Rivers, who had made tremendous improvement. Ionescu might be vulnerable off the dribble, especially dealing with an injury.

Inside the numbers: 9 - Number of wins for Connecticut, which matches Chicago and Dallas. For much of the campaign, it didn’t look like they would be matching anyone.

Prediction: 86-80 New York