Sky @ Sun preview: Somebody's got to win this one

We’ve reached the point in the WNBA regular season where we can see the finish line, and for teams like Chicago and Connecticut, that means it’s almost time to go home until next April.

That means a lot of things, but it also means motivation might start to be tough to come by for the two worst teams in the league by a pretty wide margin this season. For Sun rookies like Saniya Rivers and Aneesah Morrow, they’ve basically been going non-stop since last October, and the amount of games the WNBA has thrown at teams this year has been rough, to say to least. And now the Sun have to fly across the country for their third game in four nights.

Believe it or not, statistically Chicago is slightly better than Connecticut, with a pretty big emphasis on the slightly. And we knew (in our brains if not our hearts) that the Sun were going to be bad this season. We hoped Marina Mabrey might have more of an impact and the defense would be able to figure out a way to be more efficient (like Golden State).

The Sun could really use a big game from Marina
Mabrey Wednesday. (courtesy Connecticut Sun)

But the Sky had high hopes heading into 2025 with Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso entering their second seasons, Courtney Vandersloot coming from the defending champs to run the point, and gave up a decent amount to grab Ariel Atkins to make a playoff run, seeing as Minnesota has their first-round pick in 2026 and Washington has the rights to swap with them in 2027 (they do have the Sun to swap with thanks to Mabrey in 2026).

Although their record is near Dallas, the advanced metrics are stinky, to say the least, bad enough that the Sun have been slowly creeping up on them in net rating (currently -13.6 for Chicago and -15.9 for Connecticut).

Both coaches are on a bit of a warm seat, although - given above - Tyler Marsh’s chair is much hotter than Rachid Meziane’s at the moment, and it’s definitely a game he would like to win Wednesday. But will his team - without Angel Reese now - respond?

Meanwhile, the Sun have not beaten a team with a losing record all year long, letting Hailey Van Lith, of all people, run wild on them last time Chicago came to Mohegan Sun Arena two months ago. 

Someone has to win Wednesday, and the Sun have a stretch of games they’ve been waiting for against teams that probably aren’t going to the playoffs. Can they take advantage? What else are we looking for at Mohegan Sun Arena?:

 

CHICAGO SKY @ SUN

Time: Wednesday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Chicago 8-23; Connecticut 5-26

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Connecticut -2.5 (just the second time the Sun have been favored this season)

Absences: Chicago - Angel Reese (out, back); Ariel Atkins (probable, leg); Hailey Van Lith (probable, ankle); Courtney Vandersloot (out, season ending knee).

Connecticut- NONE

 

History between them: It’s only the second meeting between the two teams this season, with Reese getting a triple-double in Chicago’s 78-66 win on June 15. The Sun outlasted the Sky in a thrilling five-game series in the 2022 WNBA semifinals, winning Game 5 on the road with a defensive masterpiece. We talk a lot about the Sun’s complete rebuild, but amazingly not a single player that appeared for either team will be on the floor Sunday (Vandersloot would have been the only one on the roster). The Sky’s starting five? Vandersloot, Candace Parker, Allie Quigley, Kahleah Copper, and Emma Meesseman. The Sun swept the Sky in four games last season, with Marina Mabrey seeing both sides of the rivalry.

What to look for: As the open stated, motivation is going to be key. Chicago has lost 10 of 11, most of the losses have not been close, and they’ve scored more than 78 points just once in that span. While the Sun are still dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the Sky are next in line in both and closing fast, especially on the offensive end, where they are turning it over on a league-high 17.2% of possessions, something Connecticut should be able to feast on if they’re energy is right. Former Sun Rachel Banham has become the de facto point guard with the injuries and she’s trying, but it’s definitely not natural for her.

Tina Charles was rested Monday and that should pay dividends for the Sun in this game. The rookies are all young, but it has been a lot of games in a short period of time, and it has looked like it has caught up with them at times lately. This is a good test for where Meziane is with this team and the types of sports that they’ve annoyingly stumbled this season. The Sky force the least turnovers in the league by far. As we mentioned before the game against Golden State, they are the stingiest team at the rim, but Chicago lays a red carpet down, 26.3% of opponents’ field goal attempts have been layups, a little shocking with Cardoso hanging around and not a great endorsement for Mr. Marsh.

Key players:  Chicago: Hailey Van Lith - It seems like Van Lith might get an increased role in this one, although it’s been a struggle after she scored a team-high 16 points in that win over the Sun earlier in the season. I think (with Leila Lacan on board, too) the Sun’s defense against guards is better now, but we shall see.

Connecticut: Marina Mabrey - It looked like Mabrey might finally be hitting shots, but then she went 1-for-7 from the field and 0-for-6 from behind the arc Monday, so she’s shooting just 35.4% from the field and 25.8% from three-point range, which is tough to look at. Add her defensive deficiencies, and it’s been a rough season, but we know she’s capable of lighting up people even if we haven’t seen it much this season.

Advanced stat:  -1.2 - Win shares for Marina Mabrey this season, dead last of the 16 players that have appeared for the Sun this season (Haley Peters is at -0.6). Mabrey’s -1.2 is dead last in the entire WNBA with two Sky players (Van Lith and Kia Nurse coming in second and third with Peters in fourth).

Tactical spotlight: Forcing only seven turnovers against Golden State was probably the most disappointing stat about Monday night as the Sun looked very tired in the second half. Banham actually doesn’t turn it over much, but it’s probably worth pressuring her to see what happens. If Olivia Nelson-Ododa goes back to the bench, the Sun don’t have anyone to match up with Cardoso, but - again - the idea is probably going to be to harass the guards to make the entry passes tougher, although it could backfire if they keep fouling.

Cardoso, like Nelson-Ododa, is a good rim protector, but can’t guard two players at once. Rivers, Lacan, and even Mabrey should be able to get downhill and to the rim. The Sky have been dreadful in transition as well, so if Connecticut can get stops and get out and run, they should be able to put up points that way as well.

Inside the numbers: 71.8% - Percentage of field goals attempts for Rachel Banham that are three-pointers, so she’s not really a threat to get to the rim if Chicago wants to go pick-and-roll. She is shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.

Prediction: 82-76 Connecticut