Mystics @ Sun preview: Excellence is a habit like a win streak

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit,” Aristotle allegedly said once. The Connecticut Sun have been anything but consistent this season, but it’s hard to argue that they’re not improved from May, even with some ugly stumbles like the collapse to Indiana in their last home game on Sunday.

But one thing they don’t have this season is a win streak. We can imagine a world where the Sun did not blow a 21-point second half lead and then we would be talking about three wins a row with games against Washington and Chicago coming up.


Alas, we don’t live in that world, but the Sun are only slight underdogs Thursday, something that would have seemed unfathomable just a couple of weeks ago.

Leila Lacan is averaging 2.3 steals per game
this season (Chris Poss / The Next)


Connecticut is also not last in the WNBA in net rating or defensive efficiency anymore, with Chicago now dead last, and it would be something of an accomplishment if the Sun did not finish in last place this season. Baby steps, I know, but think where they were a month ago, and how many of their young players are contributing like they did in Tuesday’s win.


The Mystics’ playoff hopes are now in big trouble, but it’s a team looking to the future anyway. But they still don’t want to get swept by the Sun, so we should see a response Thursday.


Can we get a win streak before the end of the season? This might be Connecticut’s best chance.


What else are we looking on Back to School Night (is it that time already?) Thursday night at Mohegan Sun Arena?:



 

WASHINGTON MYSTICS @ SUN


Time: Thursday, 7 p.m. EDT


Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.


Records: Washington 16-19; Connecticut 7-27


TV: NBC Sports Boston; WNBA League Pass


Line: Washington -2.5


Absences: Washington - Jacy Sheldon (out, ankle); Stefanie Dolson (probable, leg); Georgia Amoore (out, season ending knee).

Connecticut- NONE.


History between them: The Sun can even the season series on Thursday. In addition to the embarrassing loss in early June, the Sun looked like they may be able to take the season opener, before Washington pulled it out late (and Connecticut would be ahead of Washington in the standings had it won). Brittany Sykes had 27 points, including 11-for-13 from the free throw line.

Connecticut leads the regular season series 61-37 overall and swept the Mystics in four meetings last season. In fact, the Sun had won nine straight dating back to 2022 when Della Donne and Jonquel Jones were the leading respective scorers. Mike Thibault won all three playoff series between the two teams, the other two coming in 2004 and 2006.


What to look for: Washington committed 14 turnovers (and the Sun had 10 steals) Tuesday, but it wasn’t ridiculous, where Connecticut really did much better was in the paint on defense, and hopefully that means Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa see more time, as they at least played Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen even, and that should be enough to win the game.


Does Rachid Meziane start thinking about limiting the minutes of Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles down the stretch? The Sun are much better defensively without Mabrey, especially, and he’s been able to pull the trigger on someone like Bria Hartley for better defense, but not Mabrey yet. Lindsay Allen also got 10 minutes Tuesday and looked decent, which says a lot about her for how little she’s played in the last six weeks.


Key players: Washington: Jade Melbourne - Melbourne has been a spark offensively for the Mystics and had 11 points on 5-for-6 shooting Tuesday, but she was no match on the defensive end for Leila Lacan or Saniya Rivers, and Sydney Johnson doesn’t have a whole lot of options after the Brittany Sykes trade, so we’ll see how that plays out.


Connecticut: Olivia Nelson-Ododa - I talked about consistency at the top, and Nelson-Ododa could really use that, especially after that tremendous performance on Tuesday. One place she has been really consistent is in her 15-foot jumper, which she’s been nearly perfect at in the last couple of weeks. But a stat to watch is rebounds, when she’s grabbing them, she’s usually at her best.


Advanced stat:  18.0% - Usage rate for Leila Lacan, which will hopefully go up in the future, it’s only seventh on the Sun right now.


Tactical spotlight: Neither team made many threes Tuesday despite being relatively open, so do you let them keep shooting them if they’re not named Sonia Cintron or Jade Melbourne? Sug Sutton looks willing to take threes and she’s actually shooting 36.1%, while Alysha Clark can hit them as well. Washington likes to give Iriafen or Austin the ball near the free throw line and have them attack from there, but Nelson-Ododa and Edwards were equal to the task Tuesday.


Marina Mabrey will probably get her minutes, but was not a factor Tuesday and makes the offense worse if she’s missing long shots that could start fast breaks for the Mystics. The same happened when Tina Charles takes her long jump shots as well Tuesday, so maybe they can both refrain from those.


Inside the numbers: 0 - Number of teams the Sun have beaten twice this season, so maybe there’s a first time for that as well.


Prediction: 80-78 Connecticut

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