Lynx @ Sun preview: Tough finish at Mohegan Sun Arena, but at least it's not the end

This week supposed to be countdown to extinction for the Connecticut Sun. I (and seemingly most others) thought when the sale of the team looked imminent that surely the Sun would be in Boston by 2026.

Instead, it now looks like Houston (?!?) is the most likely destination for Connecticut, but we’ll get at least one more campaign at Mohegan Sun Arena, and if the ticked off Mohegan Tribe really wants to be stubborn, maybe even a couple more.

Before we get to another season of Leila Lacan and the rest of the rookies, the Sun have six games remaining. The good news is four of them are at home. The bad news is their opponents have a combined record of 104-50 as of Saturday morning. That might have been a tough way to say goodbye. 

Napheesa Collier and DiJonai Carrington will be teammates at
Mohegan Sun Arena Saturday night. (Abbie Parr / AP)

But maybe not? Because they haven’t played Minnesota, Atlanta, and Phoenix in months, the only one of the three that has competed against Lacan was the Mercury, and that was way before she had become the Sun’s best player.

Saturday night’s opponent is the Lynx, who is coming off a somewhat baffling loss at home to Seattle. Like the Liberty earlier in the week, Minnesota hung an embarrassing pummeling on the Sun back on June 29, leading 50-19 late in the second quarter before cruising to a 102-63 loss, Connecticut’s third 35-point defeat of the season, and it certainly didn’t look like it would be the last.

Thanks in large part to Lacan, it has been. The Sun were 2-15 after that loss to Minnesota and would fall all the way to 5-26, but are now 10-28. Some of that might be written off to beating weaker teams (something they couldn’t do in the first half of the season), but Connecticut can certainly change that perception by stunning the Lynx - whom they had a fantastic WNBA semifinal series against last season - Saturday night.

What else can we look for at a sold out Mohegan Sun Arena, a surprisingly tough ticket, showing Naphessa Coller might have some drawing power, at least in Connecticut?:

 

MINNESOTA LYNX @ SUN

Time: Saturday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Minnesota 30-8; Connecticut 10-28

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBA TV

Line: Minnesota -12.5

Absences: Minnesota - NONE.

Connecticut - Bria Hartley (questionable, knee); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (questionable, back).

 

History between them: It seems like ages ago, but it was only three months ago that Connecticut had a 15-point lead with seven minutes left (and had led the whole way) before the Lynx went on an 18-0 run and pulled the game out. It would still be shocking to see the Sun in that situation, again, but who knows? As mentioned before, Minnesota wasted no time destroying the Sun in the second meeting, both were in Minneapolis.

Obviously the semifinal series in 2024 between the two teams went five games. The Sun won the regular season 2024 series 2-1 and leads the regular season series overall 32-28. The only other time the two met in the playoffs was 2023 when Connecticut eliminated Minnesota in three games in the quarterfinals.

What to look for: The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive efficiency, but they have been slipping a bit in the last few weeks and even with Napheesa Collier’s return from injury got shredded by the Storm on Thursday night (shooting 16-for-33 from behind the arc helps the cause). Collier should help immensely in the long-term, the Lynx are fourth worst in the WNBA in layups allowed (22.3% of shots), and they aren’t a huge team, especially without Collier. Of course, the Sun probably aren’t the team to take advantage of that, unfortunately.

On the other end, the Sun’s new defensive prowess (which didn’t really show up in Dallas) will be put to the test against the league’s top offense. Most of what the Lynx do well is just shoot better than everyone else, a league-high 37.4% from behind the arc, which helps lead to a 54.1 eFG% that all but laps everyone else. The obvious thing for the Sun to do is force lots of turnovers, and it’s not the worst idea, Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman (both former Sun guards) both have pretty average turnover rates, and with the form Lacan is in, why not play that way? 

Key players:  Minnesota: DiJonai Carrington - Carrington got a very warm welcome when she returned with Dallas earlier in the year, and should again from the grateful Sun crowd. Her role with a full Lynx roster in still unknown, she got only 13 minutes in the Storm loss, but it’s hard to believe Cheryl Reeve can’t find some extended role for her in Minnesota’s likely title run. Carrington might be able to take a shot at slowing down Lacan as well.

Connecticut: Leila Lacan - It will be fascinating to see how a team like Minnesota gameplans for Lacan as the first name on the scouting report. Do they just completely play off her and force her to hit shots? Do they just double her to get the ball out of her hands like we’ve seen against Kelsey Plum, Paige Bueckers, and Caitlin Clark? That would be some respect, wouldn’t it?

Advanced stat:  121 - Offensive rating of Jessica Shepard, third in the WNBA behind teammate Napheesa Collier and Phoenix’s Natasha Mack. It’s not perfect, but maybe her recent triple-double shouldn’t have been so surprising.

Tactical spotlight: The Sun have run much more of their offense through Lacan of late, but Tina Charles is still getting her shots. If Lacan is doubled, it should open up shots for people like Marina Mabrey, who has continued to struggle despite not facing the defensive pressure she faced earlier in the season. But she’s started to break out a little, and she’s still due for a big night at some point.

Connecticut can be aggressive on the perimeter, but then has little answer for Collier inside. Lacan now leads the league in steals, but she is also second in fouls, so the Sun have to not make it a parade at the foul line, either. They also can’t get off to the horrific start defensively they did the last two games, they may be down 30 by then.

Inside the numbers: 41.6% - Kayla McBride’s three-point shooting, and at a pretty high volume (6.6 attempts per game) as well.

Prediction: 84-78 Minnesota