Dream @ Sun preview: What is with this end of year schedule?

Sometimes you see things that make no sense in the not-so-imminent future and just ignore them, but when they get closer in the proverbial mirror, they look even more illogical.

Thus begins three games in nine days for the Sun against the Atlanta Dream (60% of their remaining schedule), a team they haven’t seen in three months. There might be reasons (maybe?) for such a run out to conclude 2025, but it’s a little disappointing now that it’s here.

Instead of the Sun and its rookies getting to test itself against various squads to see how much they’ve improved, it’s going to be all Atlanta, a very talented team that sits just a half-game out of second place. For the rest of the teams fighting that second spot, as much as we love the Sun and they’re playing better, it’s an advantage for the Dream, whose other two contests are both against Los Angeles consecutively later this week.

Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray are among the top three
 in the WNBA in minutes played this season. (Chris Poss)

Again, there are plenty of things that go into scheduling, most notably building availability, but you don’t see this sort of scheduling in the NBA (although it’s not perfect), and there are obviously a lot more important things in the world than the order teams play each other, however the cry from the players as we head toward a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is to be treated professionally and everything else will fall in line. The league has taken multiple steps to do so, but it hasn’t really kept pace with the growth of the league.

Another factor to consider is the number of games in such a short time period. After Saturday’s game, Rachid Meziane said it was certainly an issue, but deferred to people who have been in the league longer than him. As the league makes more money, they want to put more games in, but don’t want the postseason schedule to overlap the start of the NBA campaign. 

You also have so many international players now and are running into things like the World Cup and Olympics, both of which take place in the summer.

Alas, those are all problems for the future, what about the present on Monday afternoon (a standalone game) in Uncasville?:

 

ATLANTA DREAM @ SUN

Time: Monday, 1 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Atlanta 25-14; Connecticut 10-29

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Atlanta -10.5

Absences: Atlanta - Jordin Canada (questionable, hamstring).

Connecticut - Bria Hartley (out, season ending knee); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (questionable, back).

 

History between them: The two teams split the season series 2-2 in 2024, and have done the same in two meetings this season, including a somewhat improbable 84-76 Sun win at Mohegan Sun Arena on June 6, the Dream’s only loss in an 8-1 stretch. The Sun have won eight of the last 11. The Sun and Dream have met only once in a playoff series, the 2011 Eastern Conference semifinals, which Atlanta swept 2-0. Tina Charles was in her second season in the WNBA and had 17 rebounds in a Game 2 loss.

What to look for: So much has changed since these teams last met, that it was Kariata Diaby getting big minutes in Olivia Nelson-Ododa’s absence. She is not on the roster anymore, so that job should fall to Aaliyah Edwards, who matches up well physically with Brionna Jones, but Jones is a little more polished around the rim. Dealing with Brittany Griner might be another matter, she is coming off the bench these days, but without ONO, it’s a tall (get it) order for who they will have dressed.

The Sun offense, which had been better, was completely shut down by Minnesota and they now get the second best defense in the WNBA, the stat that might be most surprising about the Dream this season. They’ve done it in a completely different way than the Sun defend, only 12th (ahead of only Chicago) in forcing turnovers, but owning the paint and leading the league on defensive rebounding by a country mile (80.1%). So it will be a battle of contrasting styles. When the Sun beat the Dream, they somehow shot 30-for-51 inside the arc, including a combined 20-for-26 from Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles. That was the old Sun, of course.

Key players:  Atlanta: Rhyne Howard - Howard is still leading the WNBA in three-pointers attempted (9.5 per game) and is shooting marginally better than the last time we saw the Dream, at 30.3%. But she is also third in the league in minutes played (teammate Allisha Gray is second) and fills the stat sheet in lots of other places with a fairly low turnover rate. And if she is hitting, it might be a tough day for the Sun.

Connecticut: Aaliyah Edwards - In Nelson-Ododa’s absence Saturday, Edwards had a solid 11 points and 5 rebounds in 21 minutes, and it’s definitely worth looking at her for as long as she can do Monday afternoon. Again, Jones and Griner create a tough matchup, but it’s one we want to see if she can handle.

Advanced stat:  41.8% - Number of Atlanta’s field goal attempts that have been three-pointers this season. It’s a distant second behind Golden State, and we thought Karl Smesko’s team would take more, but he has adjusted to the roster he has to work with, and lets Howard, Gray, and Te-Hina Paopao take most of them.

Tactical spotlight: It will be interesting to see who draws Howard and Gray on the defensive end, Laila Lacan some size to deal with Gray, but Saniya Rivers is a little bigger and stronger. But anyone else seems like a brutal matchup for the Sun, whether it be Aneesah Morrow or Marina Mabrey. Lacan should be able to pressure on, especially if Canada is not playing, but we shall see.

Atlanta allows the least three-point attempts (30.3% of shots), and that shouldn’t be as big an impediment for the Sun, who doesn’t want to take many anyway. The Dream also are best at defending layups (61.6%), which makes sense given their roster and the style that they play, to not hunt the ball and look for turnovers. The Sun are going to have to earn it by hitting shots.

Inside the numbers: 39 - Number of games Allisha Gray has played this season, all of Atlanta’s contests, which may separate her from some of the other MVP candidates who have missed time.

Prediction: 82-80 Atlanta