Liberty @ Sun preview: Is there a right time to play the defending champs?

When the Connecticut Sun last saw the New York Liberty, the defending champs were undefeated and appeared on their way to one of the most dominant seasons in WNBA history, beating the Sun so badly that all kinds of +/- records were set by most of the Liberty starters (and some ignominious ones for the Sun starters).

But, despite Ellie’s efforts, the Liberty have head-scratchingly gone just 10-9 since and will come in to Mohegan Sun Arena on a three-game losing streak. Some of that is down to injuries, Jonquel Jones (we know her) missed a good deal of time, and now Breanna Stewart is out with a bone bruise and is not likely to play this weekend in Connecticut.

However, there are other warning signs that New York may not be ready to defend its title, despite adding Natasha Cloud, and its mostly on the defensive end. The Liberty still stand third in defensive efficiency, but have been slowly dropping since that massacre of the Sun, below average at forcing turnovers (8th, 14.6%), and downright miserable at rebounding, both defensive (11th, 73.9%, although the Sun are dead last at 71.4%) and offensive (12th at 21.0%).

Emma Meesseman at Mohegan Sun Arena in the 2019
WNBA Finals, which she won MVP (courtesy WNBA)

Obviously we’re not close to writing off New York, who scratched and clawed (and hit a bunch of threes) Wednesday in nearly coming back to beat first-place Minnesota. And they will soon (like maybe for this game) have the services of two-time WNBA All-Star and 2019 WNBA Finals MVP (we're not going to say who the Mystics beat that year) Emma Meesseman, whom they recently signed. 

New York still leads the league in three-point shooting (35.4%) and no one and Golden State shoots more than them. Obviously Sabrina Ionescu has unlimited range, but almost everyone on the floor can shoot it, and the Liberty shot 14-for-21 from inside the arc in that infamous game back in May.

However, does opportunity await the Sun with Stewart out and Meesseman not quite up to speed yet? Not if they play defense like they did Monday night against Seattle.

What else can we look for Friday in the first of a two-game series with New York (thanks, WNBA scheduling)?:

 

NEW YORK LIBERTY @ SUN

Time: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: New York 17-9; Connecticut 4-21

TV: ION; WNBA League Pass

Line: New York -9.5

Absences: New York - Breanna Stewart (bone bruise, out); Nyara Sabally (knee, out); Kennedy Burke (out, questionable); Emma Meesseman (questionable, non-injury related).

Connecticut - NONE.

 

History between them: The Liberty’s lopsided win was the only meeting between the teams this season, which means there are still three more games left, including two this weekend. The Sun actually won a game in Brooklyn last season, and did in this year’s preseason as well, but lost the season series 3-1 in 2024. The two teams have met four times in the playoffs, with the most recent being the 2023 semifinals, which New York won in four games.

What to look for: Things have spiraled quickly for the Sun this season in games where they've struggled and with how quickly the Liberty can put up points, it’s important for Connecticut to get off to a good start. As we’ve talked about several times this season here, it’s one thing to give up a bunch of three-pointers, but another to just give up layup after layup like they did Monday against Seattle. Without Stewart, it should hypothetically be tough for New York to live in the paint, somehow Jones is shooting just 45.1% on two-point shots this season. Many of the problems, however, for the Sun have come keeping opposing point guards in front of them and Natasha Cloud will present problems for whomever is trying to stop her (Saniya Rivers or Leila Lacan).

On the other end, the Sun offense has actually looked a lot better lately, moving up to 0.962 points per possession, up .04 ppp from just two weeks ago (that doesn’t sound like much, but it is). With a few days off, Tina Charles should be able to be effective in the paint, without Stewart or Meesseman, the Liberty are very small. In fact, New York has given up 95 points per game in their losing streak, and the Sun are at home, so we can be cautiously optimistic about their offense? Remind me when they don’t beat the 52 they had in the last meeting.

Key players:  New York: Emma Meesseman- She’s not really a key player in this one, but certainly the most interesting potentially. We mentioned how thin the Liberty currently are in the frontcourt and Meesseman will certainly help them once she’s up to speed, but hopefully not this weekend. Sadly, as a veteran player who has seen just about everything, she’s probably going to be ready to go Friday (and Sunday).

Connecticut: Jacy Sheldon - Sheldon is 6-for-7 from behind the arc in her last two games, and as we mentioned, the Liberty have not been great defensively of late, so a few threes from Sheldon could be huge if the game is close.

Advanced stat:  .174 - Defensive free throw rate for the Liberty, best in the WNBA, so while their rebounding is very poor, they don’t put opponents on the free throw line very much.

Tactical spotlight: The Sun had trouble guarding Jones on the perimeter (as everyone does) in the first meeting, and if it is Leonie Fiebish starting at the 4 as it has been with Stewart out, Charles is going to have to chase her, and she’s shooting 49.1% from three-point range this season. Again, though, the biggest issue is probably going to be penetration from Cloud and defending the pick and roll, something the Sun have struggled with almost all season.

As I said earlier, the Sun should have an advantage on offense in the paint, though, if Charles can get off to a hot start, it would be helpful. Transition will be tough, New York leads the WNBA in tempo (80.2 possessions per game), but others have turned that against them in their losing streak, and maybe that can keep the Sun from trying to stop Cloud in the half-court? It’s a dangerous game, though, if the Liberty start drilling threes in transition.

Inside the numbers: 1 - Number of times the Liberty have scored 100 points this season, amazingly the only time was against the Sun. After Wednesday’s 100-93 loss to Minnesota, New York has given up 100 four times, though.

Prediction: 96-90 New York