Sun @ Mystics preview: We're back to that hope thing again

 Hope is the thing that kills as we established in the preseason, but Friday’s win let us take a passing glance at the current standings, and the Sun - now 2-6 - are not in last place, in case you haven’t noticed (that would be Dallas).

And while Connecticut is not exactly challenging New York or Minnesota, there are a group of teams just above them, and two of them are next up on the schedule in Washington and Chicago. Wins in those games would put the Sun at 4-6 and on the edge of, dare I say it, the playoff positions?

Aneesah Morrow and Saniya Rivers (courtesy NBC Boston)

Alright, back to reality, namely Sunday’s test in the nation’s capital against, by a pretty wide margin, the youngest team in the league. Stefanie Dolson is in her 11th season and Brittany Sykes her eighth, but no one else on Washington’s roster has more than three years in the W. It’s all part of the Mystics’ rebuilding plan, which mirrors the Sun’s, even if the two teams are having to go about it in a slightly different way.

Washington had the benefit of three of the first six picks in the 2025 draft (even if Georgia Amoore is out for the season), and the Sun don’t even have a first-round pick they can depend on in 2026.

Of course, that’s all in the future. In the present, Washington has turned some heads (including a season opener that the Sun would like back), but has still lost six of seven, even if they’ve all been competitive. Kiki Iriafen looks like the favorite for Rookie of the Year at the moment, but they are not exactly an offensive juggernaut, especially shooting the ball (outside of a couple of players like Sonia Cintron and Jade Melbourne).

So we enter Sunday with some hope, especially how fun our rookies are starting to come together. But we’ll see what happens.

What else are we looking for in Washington, D.C. Sunday afternoon?:

 SUN @ WASHINGTON MYSTICS

Time: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Place: CareFirst Arena; Washington, D.C.

Records: Connecticut 2-6; Washington 3-6

TV: NBC Sports Boston; WNBA League Pass

Line: Washington -5.5

Absences: Connecticut- Raya Marshall (out, ankle); Lindsay Allen (questionable, hamstring/Achilles); Olivia Nelson-Ododa (questionable, ankle); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

Washington - Georgia Amoore (out, season ending knee).

 

History between them: The Sun looked like they may be able to take the season opener, before Washington pulled it out late (and Connecticut would be ahead of Washington in the standings had it won). Brittany Sykes had 27 points, including 11-for-13 from the free throw line.

Connecticut leads the regular season series 60-36 overall and swept the Mystics in four meetings last season. In fact, the Sun had won nine straight dating back to 2022 when Della Donne and Jonquel Jones were the leading respective scorers. Mike Thibault won all three playoff series between the two teams, the other two coming in 2004 and 2006..

What to look for: In the opener, Washington made only 5-of-15 three-pointers, but the Sun could not keep Sykes in front of them. Saniya Rivers did not play in that game, remember, and should draw the assignment. What’s less clear in what the Sun will do about Kiki Iriafen if Olivia Nelson-Ododa can’t play. As I talked about in Friday’s recap, Rachid Meziane’s choices will essentially be to ride with Kariata Diaby, who will at least be able to match Iriafen’s size, or to go with Tina Charles at the 5 and Aneesah Morrow at the 4. Probably be a mixture of both.

A lot of the offense the Mystics have gotten has been from the free throw line, and that has been a problem (among other things) for Connecticut defensively, who ranks 12th in free throws conceded behind, you guessed it, Washington. So don’t be surprised if the fouls start adding up quickly. Neither team is great at shooting, but I would give a slight advantage to Connecticut here with Mabrey (who was 5-for-21 from the field in the opener), although Melbourne, Cintron, and Lucy Olsen are all over 40% from behind the arc for the season.

Neither team plays quickly, so it will likely be a lot of half-court execution, which Sykes has done well in when the Mystics have played well.

Key players:  Connecticut: Aneesah Morrow - Morrow looked like she certainly belonged in the fourth quarter as the Sun put the game away against Atlanta Friday, but can she do it with more minutes? She could create a matchup problem for the Mystics if she can hold her own against Iriafen and company on the boards.

Washington: Brittany Sykes - If Sykes had a weakness, it’s shooting the ball, where she is shooting just 35.0% from the field this season, but somehow averaging 19.7 points per game (good for sixth in the WNBA), mostly because she averages 10.1 attempts from the free throw line, a full 2.0 better than anyone else in the W. Rivers has been decent about not fouling, but she will be tested Sunday.

Advanced stat:  72.4% - Shooting percentage on layups (shots inside three feet) for Washington this season, second to only New York, showing how imperative it will be for Connecticut to keep Sykes out of the lane and Iriafen off the offensive glass Sunday.

Tactical spotlight: As was previously mentioned, Washington takes the fewest three-pointers in the league, but so far Meziane has been somewhat reluctant to double in the post. And Iriafen is obviously a rookie, but might it be worth a hard double on occasion to make her pass out of it and someone like Sykes or Sug Sutton beat you from the outside? We shall see.

Inside the numbers: 4.5 - Rebounding average for Sykes, who is second on Washington, way behind Iriafen (9.9), of course. That’s a little misleading because of the lack of minutes Shakira Austin has gotten, but Iriafen has to be kept off the glass at all costs.

Prediction: 78-77 Connecticut