Dream @ Sun preview: Atlanta has to "deal with" being back at full strength

 “Hey Allisha, we have a new coach, don’t know much about him, but he likes to spread the floor and play quickly.”


“Cool.”


“And he likes to shoot a lot of threes.”


“Reallllly.”


That fake (hey, it’s not AI at least) conversation involving current WNBA Player of the Month Allisha Gray when she found out Karl Smesko was coming from Florida Gulf Coast to take over the Atlanta Dream is also not exactly statistically accurate at the moment: the Dream are only fifth in adjusted tempo and fourth (behind Golden State, New York, and Phoenix) in three-pointers attempted.

Allisha Gray in 2024 (AP photo)


But where it counts, in offensive efficiency, Atlanta is third in the WNBA at 1.082 points per possession behind New York and Minnesota. And where it really counts, in the standings, the Dream also stand third, at 5-2.


One of those was, of course, a fairly lopsided win over the Sun in Atlanta on May 25. The Dream was really shorthanded that day, playing without Brittany Griner among others, but it was a little bit of a revelation. The Dream have played better for much of the early season without Griner, and also potential starting point guard Jordin Canada, who stands to make her 2025 debut Friday. How does Smesko keep things rolling with a full cast of characters? A nice problem to have, I guess.


Gray, who was an All-Star on Dream squads with losing records the last two years, leads the way at 21.4 points per game, shooting 43.5% from behind the arc, but also 5.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists, all while having one of the lowest turnover rates in the league.


How will the Sun deal with Gray and company Friday night at Mohegan Sun Arena?:





 

ATLANTA DREAM @ SUN


Time: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT


Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.


Records: Atlanta 5-2; Connecticut 1-6


TV: ION; WNBA League Pass


Line: Indiana -9.5


Absences: Atlanta - NONE.

Connecticut - Bria Hartley (questionable, leg); Raya Marshall (out, ankle); Lindsay Allen (out, hamstring); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

 

History between them: The Sun scored only 22 points in the second half of the 77-55 loss in Atlanta on May 25 with Nia Coffey getting 18 points and 11 rebounds in a rare start. The two teams split the season series 2-2 in 2024, but the Sun have won seven of the last 10. The Sun and Dream have met only once in a playoff series, the 2011 Eastern Conference semifinals, which Atlanta swept 2-0. Tina Charles was in her second season in the WNBA and had 17 rebounds in a Game 2 loss.


What to look for: If Hartley can’t play (and we were confused by some “questionable” designations last Friday), the Sun are really without a point guard, meaning it will probably be a combination of Saniya Rivers and Jacy Sheldon running the show. Atlanta is pretty mediocre defensively (even with that May 25 effort against the Sun) and dead last in the WNBA in forcing turnovers (12.5%), so there’s a little hope there. Connecticut still has to make shots, of course, which has been easier said than done.


What Smesko does with Griner and Canada will be somewhat fascinating. The Dream have had a week off, but in their last game, a 94-87 win in Seattle, Griner scored just two points in just 15 minutes and finished -22. By contrast, Naz Hillmon came off the bench to score 11 points and post a +24 in 22 minutes. In theory, Griner and Brionna Jones should give Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa fits, but we shall see what his rotations are.


Rhyne Howard and Gray combined for 7 three-pointers, and add in Te-Hina Paopao and shots will be going up, the Sun just have to hope they miss most of them.


Key players:  Connecticut: Marina Mabrey - Although Gray has very good defensive advanced numbers and will probably be guarding Mabrey, this should be a game where Mabrey should be able to get some looks, and the Sun need her to shoot better than 35.2% from the field. She’s obviously capable and if Connecticut is going to pull an upset, it will probably go through Mabrey.


Atlanta: Rhyne Howard - Howard actually leads the WNBA in three-pointers attempted per game with a whopping 10.4 per game, but is only shooting 27.4% from behind the arc. She is also second in the league (behind Kelsey Plum) in minutes per game, so the Sun’s best strategy might be to let her miss and grab the rebound?


Advanced stat:  -23.7 - Rating for the Sun overall, and yes they are dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency after that ugly effort Sunday against the Liberty, meaning there is a lot to fix. But Friday is another day.


Tactical spotlight: Smesko’s offense is really fun to watch when it gets clicking and you can see a lot in the assist numbers of Gray (4.7) and Howard (5.0) for how their offense runs. Again, how does Canada fit into that, or does Smesko even go to her much Friday? Griner, by the way, leads Atlanta in turnovers (2.6 per game) as well, so it will be interesting to see how Smesko handles her as well. Will he need her at some point this season?


Inside the numbers: 6 - Number of consecutive losing seasons for Atlanta, with their last winning campaign behind 2018. The Sun could probably appreciate that not a single player remains in Atlanta from that squad.


Prediction: 92-85 Atlanta

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