Wings @ Sun preview: What if Paige Bueckers...

Somewhere in an alternate universe, the Connecticut Sun started their rebuilding a season earlier, miraculously won the draft lottery and Paige Bueckers is now leading their team (ignore the whole trading their pick thing). Or she stayed in college another year to make some big NIL money and the Sun got the first pick in 2026 (again, ignore the Sky having the pick again).

Then Bueckers saved the franchise, they won back-to-back titles in 2029 and 2030, no one ever talked of the Sun moving again, and everyone lived happily after ever.


I mean, a person can dream, right?


Paige Bueckers hold the Big East championship trophy at Mohegan Sun Arena in March (Jessica Hill/AP)
In the real world, Bueckers’ return to Connecticut Tuesday night means Mohegan Sun Arena will be sold out (with a fairly hot resale market) for a pair of 0-4 teams if you needed to know what her appeal is in the state. It’s been a rocky start to her pro career for Bueckers (and former Sun assistant Chris Koclanes), at least on the scoreboard, and although the 2025 season looks very uncertain, the future is very bright for Bueckers going forward, sadly a lot more vivid than the Sun’s prospects, particularly when you take into account the whole selling the team thing.


The more the Mercury (currently 3-1) win, the more it looks like the Sky will be able to swap picks with them next April, the next chance to get a good rookie will be 2027 (looking at you, JuJu Watkins), and that’s a long way away.


In the here and now, we have two desperate teams in front a sold out crowd (no matter who they’re rooting for), and we hope the Sun will act accordingly. But as we’ve been saying, all the urgency in the world doesn’t really help you shoot the ball.


What else can we look for in what should be a fun night in Uncasville?:




                DALLAS WINGS @ SUN


Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. EDT


Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.


Records: Dallas 0-4; Connecticut 0-4


TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston


Line: Dallas -3.5


Absences: Dallas - Myisha Hines-Allen (questionable, ankle). Connecticut - Lindsay Allen (questionable, hamstring); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, might not be back until July).

 

History between them: The Sun swept the season series 3-0 last season, including putting up 109 points in a 109-91 win in Dallas on August 16, but the Sun barely beat the Wings 74-72 at Mohegan Sun Arena on May 31 as Arike Ogunbowale scored 21 points. Overall, the Sun led the series 41-29.


What to look for: Dallas really hoped for an improved defense this season under Chris Koclanes, but it has yet to materialize through four games, the Wings sit 12th in defensive efficiency at 1.092 points per possession. The good news for Dallas is most of that lies in opponents shooting well, including 40.5% from three-point range and we know Connecticut is not a great shooting team at the moment (a bit of an understatement, so one of these two things is going to break tomorrow.


Marina Mabrey and Ogunbowale have pretty much mirrored each other in 2025, which isn’t good for either. Ogunbowale is shooting 28.6% from the field and 21.4% (6-for-28) from three, she has always shot at volume, but is a career 34.8% shooting from behind the arc. Bueckers hasn’t been flashy, but has played fairly well, leading the Wings with 13.0 points and 6.5 assists per game, and is most of the reason Dallas is second in the WNBA in not turning the ball over (12.7% of possessions).


Being repetitive here but somehow has to take initiative for the Sun and it could be Tina Charles, particularly if Myisha Hines-Allen does not play. If Mabrey is blanketed as usual, others should be open so would be a good time for former Dallas player Jacy Sheldon to have a big game. Aneesah Morrow should see more minutes and could have a chance to shine as well.


Key players:  Connecticut: Saniya Rivers - It may be unfair to put so much on Rivers’ shoulders, especially with everything she’s been through in the last month, but she will not only draw a key defensive assignment (probably on Bueckers or Ogunbowale), but also should be able to get her own shot. Rivers has to just stay calm and limit turnovers.


Dallas: Ty Harris - Harris is only averaging 17 minutes per game, but Sun fans know well that Harris is a deadly shooter when left open, and she’s 5-for-11 from behind the arc this season. The Sun don’t have enough above average defensive guards at the moment to check everyone, so Harris could find herself with some open looks.


Advanced stat:  .288 - Defensive free throw rate for Connecticut, last in the WNBA. The Sun have enough problems on both sides of the court without putting people at the free throw line, so it’s yet another thing they need to improve on.


Tactical spotlight: In addition to the talk between the two former rivals, then friends, now who knows, Mabrey against Dijonai Carrington when the Sun have the ball should be fascinating if Koclanes does not use Carrington to torture whomever the point guard is instead. Mabrey has been so frustrated already this season, so Carrington is probably the last person she wants to see guarding her.


Inside the numbers: 0.4 - Win shares for Olivia Nelson-Ododa this season, tops on the Sun. It should probably earn her more minutes Tuesday, but we shall see (Bueckers leads Dallas at 0.2.


Prediction: 82-80 Connecticut



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