Sun @ Lynx preview: One team looks the same, one doesn't

Depending on what side of the ledger you fall on either the ending of the 2024 WNBA playoffs was controversial

or the Lynx got screwed. I tend to believe the latter, although I think rigged may be a bit much. Maybe not for

Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve, though.


What is lost to history a little, but probably not to you if you’re reading this, is that the Sun came pretty darn

close to knocking off Minnesota before they ever got to the New York Liberty in the finals. Connecticut won

Game 1 of the semifinals on the road, but gave home court back by losing Game 3 at Mohegan Sun Arena,

finally falling in Game 5.


I had the luxury of attending the Sun’s last regular season meeting at the Target Center, and the Sun won that

game as well (on July 4), which was a great night for me. We splurged for some good seats and watched

DeWanna Bonner turn back the clock in a 78-73 victory for the shorthanded Sun (Veronica Burton started

and played 29 minutes, Connecticut could definitely use her these days). 


Marina Mabrey wouldn’t arrive in Connecticut for another two weeks, so - save Olivia Nelson-Ododa’s seven minutes - everyone that appeared for the Sun that night is still elsewhere. Meanwhile, almost everyone (including all five starters) from the Lynx remain, which makes it slightly baffling that there are a few other teams getting more hype than Minnesota these days, if I was a gambling person, I would not be afraid to throw a dollar or two (currently +340, just ahead of Indiana and Las Vegas and well behind New York) on Minnesota to win the 2025 WNBA title.That’s a long introduction to say that the Sun could be in a bit of trouble Friday night in Minneapolis. Or a lot of
trouble if they play like they did Tuesday against Las Vegas. The Lynx are 3-0, but did struggle a bit against Dallas
Wednesday, and will still be without Kayla McBride, who was a big part of their offense last season. 


But how will Connecticut score enough to stay in the game against the team that was second to the Sun in defensive

efficiency last season? We’ll have to find out.


What else can we look for back at the Target Center, which was full for Paige Bueckers and Dallas Wednesday

night?:


 

SUN @ MINNESOTA LYNX


Sun celebrating last July 4

Time: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT


Place: Target Center; Minneapolis, Minn.


Records: Connecticut 0-2; Minnesota 3-0


TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston


Line: Minnesota -15 (could be worse)











Absences: Connecticut - Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe); Aneesah Morrow (questionable, knee); .

Minnesota- Kayla McBride (out, personal reasons); Aubrey Griffin (out, knee); Marieme Badiane

(questionable, back); Alanna Smith (probable, quad strain).

 

History between them: Obviously the semifinal series went five games. The Sun won the regular season 2024 series 2-1

and leads the regular season series 32-27. The only other time the two met in the playoffs was 2023

when Connecticut eliminated Minnesota in three games in the quarterfinals.


What to look for: Connecticut defended Minnesota well (perhaps better than anyone else in the league) last season,

largely because they had players like Dijonai Carrington and Alyssa Thomas, who could disrupt ballhandlers

and others alike. Even with that, Napheesa Collier still found her way to get plenty of points and like A’ja

Wilson Tuesday, it’s just a matter of containing her and making her beat you from the outside (she still might).


Dallas tried 33 three-pointers Wednesday with Arike Ogunbowale trying 13, so maybe Mabrey can find her

way open or someone like Jacy Sheldon or Bria Hartley can get hot? Inside Tina Charles may get matched up

with a banged up Alanna Smith, so that could help the cause as well on that end.


Minnesota eventually came back thanks to a massive rebounding advantage (43-27), and giving up 10

offensive first-half rebounds Tuesday to Las Vegas did not help the cause, so finding Collier and Jessica

Shepard on the glass so the misses the Sun do force turn into stops is key.


Key players:  Connecticut: Marina Mabrey - The numbers are ugly to start the season: 8-for-32 from the field, 2-for-13 from

behind the arc, only one free throw (which she missed) for an even 9.0 points per game. As I talked about after

Tuesday, the body language and defense have also been poor, she has just five rebounds, five assists, and no steals.

It will not be easy, but the Sun need better.


Minnesota: Jessica Shepard - Another of Mabrey’s college teammates at Notre Dame, Shepard has been through

a lot since her rookie year of 2019, first an ACL tear that cost her almost two seasons, then was suspended for last

season after staying in Italy to fulfill contractual obligations there. But Minnesota has stuck with her, and it’s paid

dividends early, averaging 9.7 points and 9.3 rebounds through three games.


Advanced stat:  1.099 - Points per possession allowed by Connecticut this season, good for 12th (ahead of only Atlanta, and that

was before Thursday’s game) in the league. If they’re going to be competitive, they have to be solid at that end.


Tactical spotlight: Jacy Shedon, Mabrey, and Bria Hartley have has all kinds of trouble keeping opposing guards out of the lane, and

they’ll be tested by former Sun standout Courtney Williams. If they allow Williams free reign, she’ll either score or

find someone else that will among the Lynx weapons.


Inside the numbers: 2 - Number of three-pointers hit by Connecticut starters this season, both by Mabrey. Overall, the Sun is 6-for-31

from behind the arc (19.4%).


Prediction: 84-71 Minnesota

 





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