Sun @ Liberty preview: A tall order against the clicking champs

 There’s a little swagger to the Connecticut Sun’s step heading into Sunday afternoon’s game with the Liberty. The Sun, who looked like it might be a while before their first 2025 victory, got one in impressive fashion in Indiana Friday night.

Be careful what you wish for, however, at least too much, because next on the slate is the defending champions in their building. New York enters a perfect 6-0, and their starting five has been close to unstoppable in the early season, scoring 1.129 points per possession, comfortably atop the WNBA, despite a tough performance Thursday against Golden State that they eventually pulled out 82-77.

The record shows, however, that they played that contest without our old friend (and MVP) Jonquel Jones. The starting five of Natasha Cloud (also ours for a couple of hours), Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Leonie Fiebish, and Jones can all shoot (even if Stewart is just 3-for-20 on the young season), and Sandy Brondello’s five-out offense is all but impossible to guard if they’re making shots. Even if they’re not, like Friday night when they were 10-of-28 behind the arc, they still win easily, beating Washington 85-63.

The Sun celebrate Friday night in Indiana (courtesy Connecticut Sun)

Oh, did I mention the Liberty also lead the WNBA in defensive efficiency as well? They have the unique combination of shooting the best and allowing the worst eFG% and combine that with fouling the least in the league.

Which is all to say, despite the great vibes coming out of Friday, the Sun have an extremely tall order in front of them in Brooklyn. Heck, with apologies to Blaze, New York even has the best mascot in the WNBA (and I would argue the best in all of professional sports right now). 

What else can we look for Sunday in gentrification alley?:

SUN @ NEW YORK LIBERTY

Time: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Place: Barclays Center; Brooklyn, N.Y.

Records: Connecticut 1-5; New York 6-0

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: New York -18.5 (ouch)

Absences: Connecticut - Lindsay Allen (out, hamstring); Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe, will not be back until July).

New York - Nyara Sabally (questionable, knee); Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (out, season-ending knee).

 

History between them: The Sun actually won a game in Brooklyn last season, and did in this year’s preseason as well, but lost the season series 3-1 in 2024. The two teams have met four times in the playoffs, with the most recent being the 2023 semifinals, which New York won in four games.

What to look for: The Sun did expose the Liberty a bit defensively in the preseason game, but New York was at about 70% speed and didn’t play their starters more than 20 minutes (or Stewart at all). If there’s any area they’ve been vulnerable, it’s been on the defensive glass, where they are 12th at 72.5% (just behind the Sun). New York is also playing its third game in four days and does depend a lot on its starters (hence Jones resting Thursday), so there may be some fatigue, although it didn’t help the Mystics Friday night.

Marina Mabrey and Olivia Nelson-Ododa were both listed as questionable for Friday night’s game, but Mabrey played 37 minutes and Nelson-Ododa 29 and neither is on the the injury report for Sunday’s game, so I guess they’re fine? Fatigue could be a factor for the Sun as well with Lindsay Allen still out. The Liberty are only fourth in causing turnovers (16.0%), but Natasha Cloud is a matchup problem for whomever is handling the ball. When the Sun have struggled, it’s because they can’t get into their offense (or it takes too long), especially when Mabrey gets doubled. Saniya Rivers and Hartley relieved some of that pressure and will have to do the same Sunday.

The Sun are not alone in this, obviously, but I’m not sure how they deal with Jonquel Jones, except hope that she misses three-pointers, which she’s 9-for-23 for the season so far, so good luck with that. But that’s still the better alternative to letting her get layups.

Key players:  Connecticut: Saniya Rivers - If she can make shots, it gives the Sun (especially Mabrey) a lot more freedom offensively, and we know she’s a solid defender (likely to guard Ionescu). She only committed one turnover Friday and that was also huge.

New York: Leonie Fiebich- Fiebich (who was second to Mabrey in Sixth Person of the Year voting last season) is also averaging 5.3 points per game, which seems like a slow start, but she’s only taken 23 field goal attempts all season, and never more than five in a game, although she is shooting 6-for-13 from three-point range. I guess the Sun have to let someone like Fiebich beat them, but that may not work, either.

Advanced stat:  21.2% - Rebounding percentage for Jonquel Jones (second in the league behind Angel Reese, Nelson-Ododa leads the Sun at 15.8%). Add the three-point shooting and a 21.8% assist rate, and you can see how valuable she is to everything (although you probably knew that already).

Tactical spotlight: We’ll see how Rachid Meziane attacks the five-out offense, but Tina Charles and Nelson-Ododa chasing Jones and Breanna Stewart out past the three-point line doesn’t seem like it will end well for either. Any pressure they can put on Cloud would be helpful, but we’ll see what the Sun can try to cook up.

Inside the numbers: 85.7 - Percentage of Marine Johannes’ shots that have been threes so far this season (30 of 35), so when she comes into the game, you know it’s going up from behind the arc.

Prediction: 96-80 New York