Aces @ Sun preview: How mad will Las Vegas be?

Finishing 27-13 is a dream for most of the WNBA, but for the Las Vegas Aces, it’s a crisis. That’s what happens, I
 guess, when you post the best regular season mark in the W for four straight seasons and win back-to-back titles

(one of them, in 2022, over the Sun, meaning that both the Sun’s first two games are against teams that once beat

them in the finals).


All dynasties come to an end, of course, and it’s reasonable to ask if the Aces are in decline a bit, with that 27-13 mark in 2024 coming a year after a dominant 34-6 campaign. They did little to dispel any doubters in their opener, a 92-78 loss to the Liberty, granted against the defending champs on the road in a game that was fairly close early in the second half.

But the contest was a bit of a microcosm of the 2024 Aces. A’ja Wilson - who had perhaps the best statistical season in WNBA history (26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds) - tried her best to put Las Vegas on her shoulders with 31 points and 16 rebounds, however it wasn’t close to enough.

2022 WNBA finals at Mohegan Sun Arena (Jessica Hill / AP)

Las Vegas took a big swipe at catching New York (and Minnesota) when it essentially traded second-leading scorer Kelsey Plum for two-time WNBA champ Jewell Loyd, who averaged 24.9 points per game with Seattle in 2023. But the opener was a disaster for Loyd, who finished with just 5 points on 2-for-10 shooting, and seemed to be repeatedly in the wrong spot on offense with Wilson repeatedly having to tell her (a couple of times very strongly) where to be.

There were a couple of other shakeups in the roster, with Tiffany Hayes now with Golden State and Alysha Clark in Seattle.  There is still plenty of firepower left, and Wilson is at the peak of her powers, so discounting the Aces might be asking for big trouble. And they will probably like to make a nice statement Tuesday night against the rebuilding Sun to show the league that reports of their demise might be greatly exaggerated.

What else can we look for back at Mohegan Sun Tuesday night (sadly, I will not be in attendance):



 LAS VEGAS ACES @ SUN

Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. EDT

Place: Mohegan Sun Arena; Uncasville, Conn.

Records: Las Vegas 0-1; Connecticut 0-1

TV: WNBA League Pass; NBC Sports Boston

Line: Las Vegas -12 (ouch)

Absences: Las Vegas - Megan Gustafson (out, leg); Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (out, pregnancy). Connecticut - Leila Lacan (out, still in Europe); Aneesah Morrow (out, knee); Saniya Rivers (probable, bereavement).

 History between them: Las Vegas swept all three games last season from Connecticut, but the Sun lead the overall series 33-24 (not all of them as the Aces). However, the Aces won both playoff series, the final in 2022 and the semifinal in 2020.

What to look for: Becky Hammon and the Aces are likely to come out big mad and try to bury Connecticut early, so it’s important for the Sun to shake off whatever happened at the end of the game Sunday and be ready to go. Las Vegas shot a dreadful 17-of-50 (7-of-31 for players not named A’ja Wilson) on two-point shots, and while the Sun would love to see that kind of number, it’s hard to see it repeated.

Even with their troubles early in the season, Las Vegas had the most efficient offense in the league in the second half of the campaign in 2024, but a lot of that was Plum and Hayes. Can the Sun do a better job of defending guards like Jackie Young then they did against Brittany Sykes Sunday?

Despite Marina Mabrey’s struggles, the Sun’s offense was not awful (1.05 ppp) on offense Sunday, so there’s hope on that end. Saniya Rivers should return, and we’ll see how many minutes she will get, but the bench struggled Sunday, so they’ll take anything her or Bria Hartley can give.

Key players:  Connecticut: Olivia Nelson-Ododa - Nelson-Ododa had a really promising opener and her reward is to get to try to defend Wilson Tuesday night. Wilson has the ability to drag Nelson-Ododa away from the basket and that could be a problem, but there really isn’t anyone that has been able to stop Wilson in the last couple of seasons, so she just has to limit the damage.

Las Vegas: Jewell Loyd - The Aces will need Loyd to be a big-time scorer this season, and she surely will want to get the taste of a 5-point performance out of her mouth, which could be bad news for the Sun.

Advanced stat:  10.9 - Win share for A’ja Wilson last season, the runaway league leader. Breanna Stewart was second at 8.7, while Brionna Jones actually led the Sun at 6.0.

Tactical spotlight: How do the Sun get Marina Mabrey better looks? Rachid Meziane alluded to it in postgame Sunday, but doesn’t have much of a turnaround for this one, and - although he’ll get Rivers back most likely - doesn’t have a plethora of offense to work with at the moment.

Inside the numbers: 1 - Game suspension for Las Vegas’ Crystal Bradford, which she served against the Liberty. What made the suspension unique is that it stemmed from an off-court incident in May of 2021 (in which Courtney Williams was also involved). But because Bradford wasn’t on a WNBA roster since then, her suspension had to wait four years.

Prediction: 90-80 Las Vegas

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